Allocation Factor = ½ × ( ( SDV ÷ TDV ) + ( SEV ÷ 538 ) )
What is that? As universe-shaking as e=mc2?
No, but right now significant enough.
It is the root formula of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) to allocate the number of delegates in each delegation to the Democratic National Convention convening July 23, 2020 in Pittsburgh.
It’s a calculation based mainly but not exclusively on the number of votes each state gave to the Democratic candidates for president in 2008, 2012 and 2016, weighted by favorably factors like how late in the process a state party holds its caucus/primary (later is better) or whether several geographically aligned states cluster their primaries to create mini-regional elections, a hypothetical example would be New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Delaware. If they held their primaries the same day they would get delegate bonuses. They won’t and because the 2020 primary/caucus calendar is already established by law in each state, neither of the bonus triggers will have great impact.
Before catching up on the emerging candidate field — look for that in Part IV because there is too much here about process that hardly anyone but potential candidates is looking at but arguably is more important now — it makes sense to look first at key factors that will shape what will be a crazy presidential nomination contest.
In fact the Democratic presidential nomination campaign is probably going to be crazier — CRAZIER than any in the history of the United States. Before the focus falls on who will run, the first things to look at are some new rules and changes in the nominating schedule that will make it crazy.
The rules changes combine with potential for the largest intra-party presidential field in history to suggest:
— The Democratic presidential nomination could go to two, three, perhaps more ballots (FDR won his first nomination in 1932 only on the 3rd ballot, albeit in a time when it took two-thirds of the delegates to win, not a simple majority of 50 percent plus 1 as it does today. In the last Democratic multi-ballot convention Adlai Stevenson won the 1952 nomination on the third ballot after 17 candidates got at least some votes on the first ballot).
— Several candidates could arrive at the 2020 convention with a very viable chance. How many is several? At least three, maybe as many as five or six.
— Some who drop out along the way might suspend rather than end their runs because they would have considerable leverage at a multi-ballot convention that could revive their candidacies or give them real clout in deciding who wins the nomination.
— The first part of the campaign for the nomination will very likely be the most expensive in history by a considerable factor (see below, California).
— Staffing national presidential campaigns ably and competently is a daunting challenge, there are just so many experienced people to go around. Staffing so many campaigns is a contest already under way and is an early test of candidate smarts and viability.
— Every competent candidate staff will need an experienced campaign manager but also a very able chief legal counsel to navigate the complex rules of the convention and the delegate selection system — delegate selection rules alone run to 23 pages of dense minutiae.
— In the chaos and confusion of so many candidates, including so many big political names, social media will have an outsized role and could cause bedlam.
— The vague debate rules set out by the Democratic National Committee (DNC) seem to mean that early debates — before the field diminishes — will have to be held on two or even three successive days/nights; or conceivably but less likely in two or three sessions the same day/night. That in turn could create problems by seeming to favor candidates who get first night places on a multi-night debate card or first panel places in a same night debate churn of all the candidates on two or more panels.
— The 12 debates authorized by the DNC therefore are likely to consume several dozens of nights of cable news programming because the debates probably will have to be staged in manageable groups of 8 or 10 candidates per panel within each debate.
The sum of all this and more is that the Democratic presidential nomination campaign will be crazier than any before first. It will be crazier because of the sheer number of candidates — seemingly headed toward as many as 30. If you thought the 2016 Republican early field of 17 candidates was crazy and unwieldy, imagine what 24 candidates or 30 candidates will look like. As it stands now as many as 9 U.S. senators, one-fifth of the 47-member Democratic Senate caucus, could decide to run for president.
Is that crazy? Sure is. But there is no rule and no way to impose one that says you cannot run for president in the Democratic Party in 2019/2020 — no matter how stupid and stupidly unlikely your candidacy is. Hence a 20-to-30 candidate field is about to explode into being.
Crazier too because of changes in rules regarding “super-delegates”. This is the key difference that could push the nomination to a second ballot or beyond for the first time since 1952. Crazier too because of those vague debate rules. Crazier also because of California. It looms gigantic over the entire drama. California has already changed the entire dynamic of the race in ways unseen, unnoticed and unreported to date.
Also, Democratic Party fairness rules that award delegates based on vote percentages in primaries and caucuses likely will atomize delegations with so many candidates entering the race, giving more impetus to a multi-ballot convention.
Another key change puts pressure on caucus states to change how they count votes by having caucus-goers cast actual ballots rather than move into groups for head counts. On Feb. 3, 2020 when Iowa Democrats caucus it will not be enough for them to separate into groups for candidates A, B and C (in fact from A to Z as it looks now) and take a head count. The rule change strongly encourages actual balloting in every caucus, with two caucus states voting in the first month of delegate selection, Iowa and Nevada.
There will be over 3,700 delegates chosen by caucus/primary voting and more than 700 super delegates, who are members of the Democratic National Committee, members of the House and Senate, governors, state party chairs, former major office holders or other party officers or dignitaries like former presidents.
In the past — and this is the major change — they all got to vote on the first ballot, encouraging super delegates to line up with the frontrunner early and tip the contest to the party’s favorite. This time they won’t vote until a second ballot if there is one, making it likely there will be more than one ballot in a fractured candidate field without a clear favorite.
Here are details on factors that could make the 2020 Democratic presidential contest different from any we’ve seen:
Super Delegates
In 2020, super delegates cannot vote until the second ballot. Only elected delegates will vote on the first ballot. If no one wins 50 percent plus one on the first ballot, the nomination will go to a second ballot.
Because super delegates can’t vote on the first ballot a great many could decide to hold back from endorsing and pledging their votes until they see how the primary/caucus results are moving or even to go to the convention un-pledged. They are also free to change their allegiance at any time.
On the second ballot all delegates are released from their pledges — from obligations to vote for candidates they were committed to vote for by primary/caucus results.
California
California is the largest state in the nation in population containing 12 percent of all of us. With 40 million people it is a nation unto itself. Alone, it has the 5th largest economy in the world, ranking only behind the United States, China, Japan and Germany – ahead now of Great Britain and France. It will have the largest delegation by far and has already changed the entire dynamic of the contest. Whatever the exact delegation numbers turn out to be, California will send an estimated 11 or 12 percent of all the Democratic delegates to Pittsburgh.
But California will also have another distinction in 2020 when, with Iowa, it will be among the first states to vote for delegates. Californians will begin early primary voting the same day as the Iowa caucuses.
We are by now used to and expect the Democrats’ nomination calendar to begin on the first Tuesday in February (Feb. 3, 2020) with caucuses in Iowa, proceed a week later (Feb. 10) to the New Hampshire primary, move to caucuses in Nevada the third Saturday of the month (Feb. 22) and end the month on the last Saturday with the South Carolina primary (Feb. 29 — 2020 is a leap year).
All that breathtaking February presidential fun is followed immediately by “Super Tuesday”, the first Tuesday in March with primaries in 8 states — Alabama, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia.
Then historically the rest of the primary calendar followed with the last major date the first Tuesday in June (June 2 in 2020). On that date the last two big states to hold primaries always were New Jersey and California.
Not in 2020.
California has moved its primary to Super Tuesday.
Let that sink in — California, which will choose 11 percent of the elected delegates — has moved its primary to Super Tuesday. Therefore by the close of Super Tuesday, Democrats will have selected about 30 percent of first ballot delegates.
But California looms even larger because California has early voting. California Democratic primary voting will start Feb. 3 — Iowa caucus day — and continue through Feb. 25, followed by actual in person primary day voting March 3.
California Democrats will continue voting through and after Feb. 10 when New Hampshire Democrats vote. New Hampshire has 1.3 million population. Los Angeles County alone has 3.8 million people. California, with 40 million population has more than three times as many people as Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina combined.
Iowa is 88 percent white, 3 percent African-American and 2 percent Hispanic. New Hampshire, like Bernie Sanders Vermont, is 95 percent white. California is so multi-racial and multi-cultural that it can defy this kind of breakout but a variety of sources suggest the state can be described as about 45 percent non-Hispanic white, almost 40 percent Hispanic, 11 percent Asian-American and 5 percent African-American.
Draw your own conclusions from all those numbers as to what state will be most on the minds of the candidates in the multi-racial, multi-cultural Democratic Party in February 2020. Iowa? New Hampshire? Maybe, this time, California.
Money
California’s early primary and early voting are likely to make immense changes in every possible way, especially when it comes to money. No matter how much early money a candidate needed before to be viable in February, candidates will need far more money by February 2020 because they will have to up on TV in California’s many media markets much earlier. It is the only possible way to campaign in a state with 40 million people.
There are slightly more than 150 U.S. media markets containing population of at least 100,000. California contains 16 of them. Among the top 30 media markets four are in California — Los Angeles, San Francisco-Oakland, Sacramento and San Diego.
Those four California markets alone contain over 10 million homes with televisions By comparison the Des Moines market, the largest in Iowa, has 383,000 TV homes. It is impossible to campaign in California as candidates are expected to in New Hampshire and Iowa — up close and very personal.
California campaigning requires vast amounts of money to get onto and stay up in key media markets. It is money in amounts candidates have never had to raise so early before to run for president.
The early California primary could cause recalculation of early state campaigning. Raising the money and making strategic media market appearances in the Golden State could reduce campaign time in Iowa and New Hampshire, could confront candidates with a choice to do that at risk of the greater prize even though they know the tired, worn advice that Iowa and New Hampshire voters expect almost personal attention and contact.
Distance too comes into play. It’s 1,100 miles from Boston to Des Moines, but 2,500 miles to Los Angeles. Even travel will be more expensive, never mind the strategic decisions to be made as candidates choose between California or the traditional February states
Debates
Recall the Republican Party presidential debates in late 2015 and 2016. They began with 17 candidates on stage, a format that immediately revealed itself as unwieldy if not unmanageable. The Republican National Committee made a major change to get control of the debates. It came up with a rule to limit main stage debates to 10 candidates chosen on the basis of rolling averages in five national media/academic polls. Other candidates were relegated to an undercard, a secondary debate scheduled usually on the same day but at an earlier hour than the main one.
The DNC looked at that and rejected it. Instead the DNC announced recently that there will be 12 debates in all with the first two to be held in June and July 2019. Yes, the first debate will be just six months from now.
There are to be six debates in 2019, six in 2020. Debates in the early states, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, will not take place until 2020 which means there will be four debates in January and February 2020 alone, which sounds like a pretty stupid early packing of the six debates allocated to 2020. But that’s what they announced.
Given that they are not going to use the Republican system of a main and undercard debate determined by polling results, how will Democrats divide their expected huge filed into manageable debate groups. Well they say that they have yet to work out the details but that not all candidates will be included. Some will be excluded by looking at factors like “grass-roots support” based on things like the number of small donations candidates have received. But those details have not been announced.
Again without any details provided, debates will be broken up into two or more debate panels on consecutive nights/days to manage their numbers with candidates “randomly” chosen for a first panel or a second or even third if more than two are necessary. No one has yet defined “randomly”. It all sounds like a complicated, half-cooked recipe for a debate mess that is sure to please some candidates and make others angry and contentious.
Media Coverage
If you are a national media business, how do you pick and choose between 20 or 25 or 30 candidates without biasing the contest? You don’t. If you focus on the top three or four or six candidates in the polls you change the dynamic but that’s what the media will do and do quickly because no one has the resources to cover them all and no one can make any measurement beyond early polling to guide coverage decisions about how the copy is written and what it says, or where the cameras point.
Media coverage, who gets it, how much they get, who gets less, who hardly gets any is something beyond the control of candidates in a contest that will start out with 20 to 30 of them. Each will be covered the day he or she announces but the media already has a bias to the big names it knows and expects to run strongly even if they fail. Et tu Jeb Bush and perhaps et tu Joe, or Bernie or Elizabeth or all three of them?
National news media’s political reporters and editors are clustered in New York and Washington, especially Washington, which builds in an advantage for members of the House and Senate who decide to run; gives the national political boys and girls on the bus easy access to them and so awards those candidates an advantage — though none so great as Donald Trump got when MSNBC and CNN took the easy way out filling air time in 2015 and 2016 by indiscriminately televising all of his rallies.
The race begins Jan. 1. The candidacy announcements will follow one another pell-mell There will be many, far too many. All the while the president the Democrats seek to topple will use their contest to do what he has proven so capable of doing — dominating attention and news coverage by singling them out one by one for attack and denigration.
Who Trump attacks could well turn out to be the best barometer, the real tell as to who the Democratic frontrunners are at any given moment in the race.
Even as all that happens it is considerations and factors like those described here that will greatly influence the final outcome 18 months from now in Pittsburgh. The only certainty is that anyone who thinks he or she can predict that today is a fool.
Peeling the Onion 