And the Candidate Is: Part VI

 

It’s pronounced Booda-jedge (as in judge but say jedge and say both syllables fast). Mea culpa, I underestimated him in Part I. But who didn’t. Shades of 2007/2008 eh? Remember that? When people wondered why a brand new senator from Illinois thought he had a chance to be president.

Mayor Pete, as he has come to be known by many having trouble pronouncing his last name, is a Harvard grad, was a Rhodes scholar, served in Intelligence in Afghanistan, plays concert piano, speaks 7 languages and is gay and married.

He is not the only currently serving mayor running for president. There are two. The other is Mayor Wayne Messam of Miramar, Fla., a city of 140,000 in Broward County just southwest of Ft. Lauderdale and directly west of Hollywood, Fla. Messam is the son of Jamaican immigrants, founded his construction company, was a tight end on the 1993 national champion Florida State University football team and has made forgiving the $1.5 trillion in outstanding student debt a main plank of his candidacy.

Also announced of late is Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado, now serving his second full term in the Senate that will be up in 2022. The senator made an impassioned speech Jan. 19 this year on the Senate floor during the shutdown that garnered much favorable attention and exposure (if you want to see/hear the speech search Michael Bennet speech). The senator is a former Denver schools superintendent and was chief of staff to Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, who as former Gov. Hickenlooper of Colorado is running for president (see Politico for a recent interesting profile of the former governor — search Hickenlooper, Politico). So Colorado has two men seeking the nomination, one of whom once worked for the other.

Another recent entrant is Rep. Tim Ryan, a three-term northern Ohio congressman with a centrist labor record whose claim to fame is that he tried to oust Nancy Pelosi as House Minority Leader and then to stop her from becoming House speaker.

Then there is Rep. Eric Swalwell of California, the member of the House Intelligence Committee who is on MSNBC and CNN on the days when its chairman, Adam Schiff, isn’t. Swalwell would seem to have no other particular credentials other than his House seat, over-exposure on television and youthful good looks to recommend him for the presidency. Now in his fourth term in the House, his presidential bet as likely as not is that he is a TV favorite of the hardest core of the Democratic Party by dint of all those cable appearances. He had some small experience in local government before winning his seat but an otherwise skimpy resume.

Did you know Marianne Williamson is also running for the Democratic nomination for president? Well she is. If you are into New Age spiritualism you will know her and her more dozen-plus books. If you don’t know who she is, she is sometimes called Oprah’s spiritual advisor. She’s sold several million copies of her books and has a wide following while others consider her a peddler of drivel. She does good works like running a food delivery service for people with life-threatening diseases.

Then there are at least eight, count ’em, eight other potential candidates still said to be looking at the race, delving into or nibbling around the edges with trips to the early voting states. None has said definitively they will or won’t run but several are making serious presidential moves.

They are former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe,  New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, New York Mayor Bill deBlasio, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, and Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton, who in late March said he would make his decision soon thereafter. Bullock says he will make up his mind after the Montana Legislature finishes with the state budget. While he waits for that he has been visiting Iowa, making his fifth trip in February. de Blasio has been to Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada looking for people who might like him as president since almost no one in New York likes him as mayor — or even likes him.

Rounding out these eight are former Georgia candidate for governor Stacey Abrams, a well-liked figure, who gave the Democratic reply to Trump’s State of the Union speech this year, and Joe Sanberg. Who he? A California investor who has announced he would announce April 15, tax day, whether he is running . Why April 15?  Because his  big issue is not enough  taxpayers know they are eligible for the Earned Income Tax Credit.

June 26 and 27 in Miami  will kick off a schedule of eight debates this year with four more scheduled in the first months of 2020, scheduled in part to accompany the February primaries and caucuses in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. NBC stations including MSNBC and Telemundo will carry the first one on successive nights.

There will be a debate per month starting with the Miami debate in June. The reason there will be two nights worth is that as of now there are 20 candidates in the Democratic presidential contest and more expected. To avoid having 20 of them on stage on one night there will be two nights.

But it gets complicated. To qualify for the first debate a candidates must:

Be at least at 1% in three polls in the time nearing the debate or raising small donations (even as little as $1) from 65,000 separate donors, including at least 200 in each of at least 20 states.

The latter qualification is the reason so many of us are seeing constant emails asking for just a small donation to put this or that candidate on the debate stage.

As presently planned, you won’t get to see all the candidates if there are more than 20 and almost surely there will be when all is said and done by June 1 or sooner.

There will be a cutoff of 10 candidates per night in each two-night debate so at least until some start to drop out of the race, there will be candidates left out. Selection of which 10 on which night will be random, maybe a drawing of names, but it’s likely that will still not wholly eliminate the sense that the big night is the first night. The 20 who get to the debate state ,if there are more than 20 who meet the test, apparently is to be decided by using the debate entrance criteria to weed out those who — even if they qualify, do so only barely. Expect those determinations to get ugly.

Including Joe Biden and Buttigieg pending only their formal announcements at this moment there are 20 declared candidates, 

If all those identified above as possible entrants decide to run, the field will be 28. 

For just now, these are the 20 who are in already. The number beside their names is the age each would be on Jan. 20, 2021, Inauguration Day:

Joe Biden, 78

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, 56

New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker,51

South Bend, Ind. Mayor Peter Buttigieg, 39

Former  Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro of Texas, 46

Former Maryland Congressman John Delaney, 57

Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, 39

New York Sen. Christin Gillibrand, 54

Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper

California Sen. Kamala Harris, 56

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, 70

Minnesota  Sen. Amy Klobuchar, 60

Miramar, Fla. Mayor Wayne Messam, 48

Former Texas Congressman Robert O’Rourke, 48

Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan, 47

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, 79,

California Rep. Eric Swalwell, 40

High tech investor Andrew Wang, 46

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, 71

Marianne Williamson, 67.

As a refresher here are some key facts that should be uppermost in mind as the race progresses:

• There will be no debates carried by Fox News or the Fox Network because Democratic National Chairman Tom Perez stupidly declared Fox hostile, thereby foregoing a great chance to present the Democratic Party, its articulate candidates and their understanding of the United States, their vision and policy ideas to Fox’s audience.
• The initial primary/caucus calendar is Iowa, Feb. 3, 2020, New Hampshire, Feb. 11, South Carolina, Feb. 23,  Nevada, Feb. 29 (leap year).
• California, which traditionally held the primary for its massive delegation the first Tuesday in June has moved to Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020 when it and 8 other states will vote, thereby setting up a razor’s edge for its favorite daughter, Sen. Harris, who will have to do at least as well as the pundits say she will have to do to move forward as a strong candidate. In a recent California poll she came in third behind Biden and Sanders with 17 percent. At least one pundit declared the result alarming for the Golden State’s junior senator and former two-term attorney general.
• Most importantly, the more than 700 super-delegates —  those automatically delegates by dint of holding public or party offices, who in past contests could by the mass of their combined numbers and their nature as party regulars tilt the decision to a favored candidate — those super delegates will not get to vote at the 2020 Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee until the second ballot.
• This sets up a real chance the convention could go to two, perhaps three, even conceivably four ballots if  two or more candidates arrive in Milwaukee with meaningful delegate counts they won in primaries and caucuses but not a majority, something that has not happened since the 1952 Democratic National Convention chose Adlai Stevenson.
• Stevenson, then Illinois governor, did not run in the primaries that year but at the convention became the anointed  pick of Democratic bosses in a deadlocked contest at a time when the bosses could do that. They can’t do it anymore in the small sense  of a few men deciding. But in the larger sense, Democratic organizations can if a big cohesive block of super delegates moves to a candidate if the convention goes to a second ballot.
• It will take 50 percent of delegates plus one to win. FDR won his first nomination in 1932 on the fourth ballot. Until 1936 Democrats required a two-thirds delegate majority. Since then only a simple majority has been required and only one Democratic National Convention, that in 1952, has gone beyond one ballot to nominate a presidential candidate. Because it has not happened at any of the last 16 conventions, it is pure guesswork as to how the November chances of the nominee would be coming out of a multi-ballot convention. It might bring the party together. It might tear it asunder as it sends the candidate out from Milwaukee to battle Trump.

Then how is it looking? Well the polls say Biden is the leader but he has not gotten past 33 percent in the early polls. Sanders is a consistent second polling above 20 percent. But both have been leaking with each new poll. Third place has revolved and in any given poll usually finds either Warren or more likely Harris and sometimes O’Rourke there with about 10 percent. But O’Rourke has been fading. Buttigieg is having a strong moment, a lot of it discovery of him, and  has risen to a steady fourth and fifth place but never more than  11 percent. The rest score between 1 percent or 7 percent and this includes the other senators, Klobuchar, Gillibrand and Booker.

Quinnipiac University Iowa and New Hampshire Polls the second week of April put Biden first, Sanders second, Buttigieg third with Warren, Harris, Booker and Klobuchar in the mix. The senator failing in virtually every poll, national or early state, is Gillibrand. Here and there another candidate gets to 1 or 2 percent but no more and not consistently. And, while Biden and Sanders continue to score first and second it is with diminishing percentages. For example, in the April Quinnipiac Iowa and New Hampshire polls Biden was in the mid-20 percent range, Sanders in the mid to high teens and Buttigieg about 10 percent. What does that mean? Maybe nothing, maybe that the Democratic base is beginning — as it most certainly should — to cast eyes elsewhere than the two septuagenarians.

Otherwise, what to make of these early polls? Not much. They confirm Biden is an old favorite of party faithful with near universal name recognition, that Sanders has acquired enormous name recognition but that there is also a desire shared by over 50 percent of the Democratic base for a newer face.

There is also a concerted and concentrating desire for a woman candidate at the top of the ticket coming out of the party’s big 2018 win, especially in the House where so many New Democratic women members have taken their seats and are changing Capitol Hill.

With the sudden surge of interest and trending support for Buttigieg, the edgiest question in the contest is not whether there can be a woman at the top of the ticket or an African-American — been there done that, so can do it again think Democrats; but whether there can be a gay married man heading the ticket to a win.

Then there is the money race. Biden had not entered when 1st quarter fundraising reports were due at the Federal Election Commission in April so whatever he has raised or can raise has not yet come into view though with a strong union base and a deep reservoir of good will, it will be a lot.

In first place with a donor list of more than 500,000 stemming from and continuing since his 2016 run was Sanders with $18 million while the other strongest reports were from O’Rourke, who raised some $10 million in a matter of weeks on entering, Mayor Pete with $7 million raised on his earnest appeal to his and a still younger generation, Warren also at $7 million, Klobuchar at $6 million and Booker at $5 million. Experts say those numbers are very strong this early.

Many of the others have been slow to disclose their total perhaps because they are not going to match those of the top money raisers. But maybe, except for debate qualifying, they don’t have to yet in a fluid campaign on social media, cable appearances and in the early states on old-fashioned retail politics like  literally showing up, meeting small groups of voters and shaking hands.

Surprises or developing story lines as they say on TV? Biden’s confrontation with his penchant for touching people and that he can’t seem to break beyond 33 percent in early recognition polls that could represent not a base to grow but a high water mark. Sanders clearly having to share oxygen on the left with Harris, Sanders and Buttigieg. The lack of traction so far for Booker and Gillibrand but also O’Rourke for all the hoopla about him. Maybe people have noticed Beto spends too much time on table tops waving his arms and saying not much at all. Also noted: Hickenlooper seems intent on ducking every question with mealy-mouthed answers on issues.; Inslee has pledged himself a one issue candidate (climate change) when the first thing he needs to do is tell the rest of the country outside his state who he is.

Speaking of issues, the Democrats are offering a lot of very specific ideas on policy from Sanders newest Medicare for all outline and legislation; to Warren’s proposals to tax wealth as well as income and to tax corporate profits at 7 percent based on profits reported not on corporate tax returns but on corporate SEC filings, or to Harris’s proposal for federal support to raise all public school teacher salaries.

Also of not is that CNN and MSNBC have learned something from 2016 coverage debacles and are offering all the candidates town hall and interview opportunities —  spreading cable time reasonably fairly. But notwithstanding this effort networks’ punditry panels keep leaning in to focus on their perceived  front-runners or hardly looking at possible impact of the super delegate rule change.

Who has impressed so far handling themselves in interviews? Buttigieg for sure. Also Delaney, who makes a lot of sense when he gets his rare chance but is reported having trouble getting to 65,000 donor  and Klobuchar who is talking plain sense, which is her brand although she has been damaged by stories about her being a very unpleasant boss. Those assertions about her came early enough for her to overcome if she translates her toehold in the race to a foothold. But, right now, no one in the media or politics would likely consider any of these three to be the person likely to emerge with the nomination. As to that, well there is a long way to go, at least 12 debates, more than 40 state and territorial primaries and caucuses and a no-super delegate first ballot.

The plot is thick — and thickening. If you are growing increasingly worried that this stew of personal ambition is a mess that could wreck Democratic chances and re-elect Trump, well, there is good reason to worry.

How to begin to fix the mess? Fifteen people at least should not run, get out now or just not get in because it is not their time to be president, or it never was or it never will be and they just plain ought to know it, admit and leave this race.

My list of 15? Abrams, Bennet, Castro, de Blasio, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, McAuliffe, Messam, Moulton, Ryan, Sanberg, Swalwell, Yang and Williamson.