As of early this morning, June 26, the New York Times reported that the race for District Attorney of Queens is too close to call. But even without a final result, the political result is clear and Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) is the winner.
With 99 percent of precincts reporting, The Times said Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez’s endorsed candidate, Tiffany Caban, led Queens Borough President and Democratic organization favorite Melinda Katz by 1,090 votes. Between them, in the six-candidate field, they garnered 80% of the total vote, with 3,400 absentee ballots to be counted. The Times reported New York City Board of Election officials said the count might not be complete until July 3.
It appeared from reported results that turnout was a dismal 10% or 11%, signaling that once again the Queens Democratic machine sputtered and failed to get in motion as it did in June 2018 when AOC ambushed it in a similarly low-turnout election to win nomination for her congressional seat over long-term incumbent and heavy favorite Joe Crowley. If those who do not learn from the past are condemned to repeat it, then Queens regular Democrats are among them.
It is more than very likely that the New York Times endorsement of Caban a week ahead of the election tipped the vote to her because, especially in obscure local low-turnout elections where the most motivated voters turn out, voters actually do look to newspapers to help them decide. And in New York, the Times’s endorsement matters to such voters a lot. But whether the Times made the difference, it will not get or claim the credit.
AOC will get credit for a big win that is likely to strengthen her hand not only in her congressional district and in Queens, but in the very consequential Democratic presidential nomination battle.
She has been smart about that, appearing with both Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, both of whom endorsed Caban. Though she’s appeared with both, she has yet to endorse either — although the 2016 Sanders campaign gave the congresswoman her start in politics.
She can let that decision ride toward the end of the year but, given her influence, her endorsement will be wanted by whoever receives it well before the early voting starts in Iowa Feb. 3.
The one thing we can divine from her short but impactful career in politics is that she would never in any circumstance endorse Joe Biden for the nomination. Would she support him if he became the nominee? You are supposed to say that yes, she would and probably she would but …
In any case, whether the absentee ballots turn the election to Katz or confirm Caban as the winner, AOC’s candidate won or will end up in a very near second place and either result is an AOC win.
Ordinarily, absentee ballots would favor an organization candidate. But even if they do, from the numbers reported election night, Katz will need to win two-thirds of them to pull out a victory While possible, that is unlikely. Most likely is that when it is all done and counted Caban’s win will hold up.
What is likely is that this will be read in political circles and in the political media as a win for AOC that strengthens the value of her endorsement for president, an endorsement all but certain to go to Sanders or Warren. Her endorsement is important not just because of her own renown but because she is an influencer and a media magnet.
She will influence the presidential choices of others in the Democratic progressive caucus in the House. Not if but when she endorses she will influence a lot of young voters in early primary and caucus states and her choice will influence the media to report that she is influencing young voters and progressives.
In the nature of things political, hearing from the media they are being influenced toward one candidate or another by AOC will actually influence those younger voters and progressives toward her choice.
All of that makes the AOC endorsement particularly prized and essential for Sanders or Warren, whichever of them gets it.
Do I have a guess as to which of the two AOC will support?
Yes, I do.
Who?
Not saying.
Guess.
Peeling the Onion 