October Surprise

We are, pardon it being trite to say it this way, on pins and needles each day about our election.

The polls are all over the place. We probably ought to have a poll about the polls. Are they credible anymore? Why do we believe some, not others?

But this is not about that except to observe again that the United States of America is balanced on the knife’s edge of its politics (at times the trite is useful, isn’t it?)

No, this is about the possibility of an October surprise, that event, unforeseen and probably unwanted in the moment, that can change the direction of an election. Obviously, either attempt on Trump would have been an early October surprise had one succeeded. Let us be greatful they did not for his sake, yes even for his sake, and for the change of turmoil and who knows what in the alternative.

What no one in the media constellation it seems has considered is that there are the seeds of an October surprise in OUR election. Those seeds, planted over 70 years ago, have grown into a forest of conflict on the Israeli/Lebanese border. If they are harvested now, what will it mean here in American election politics?

The rest here assumes the reader is well acquinted with the Middle East, its conflicts, and above all events the past year in Gaza and 120 miles away on Isreael’s northern border with Lebanon (nations formally at war since 1947).

If as it seems, Israel’s aim is a regional war in its north with Americans and the two presidential candidates left to decide how they respond then in an instant moment, it could, it would create a wedge in our politics with possible unintended consequences for us – but intended consequences both in Lebanon and in the American election for Netanyahu and the Israeli right wing.

The timing is what? Perhaps blatant?

First, it says Israel knows it cannot achieve by force of arms its proclaimed aims in Gaza to free the hostages, who seemingly it cannot find but by accident, and to destroy Hamas. So it is slow walking away from that without admitting so.

Notice how the news feed from there has changed the past two weeks from events in Gaza, which have become secondary, to those in Lebanon and on the border, which have become primary.

Second, it says Israel is pulling back from Gaza, but gathering its forces on the Lebanese border for a much larger conflict in Lebanon. We don’t have to surmise that. It has been declared by the defense minister, Mr.
Galant, among others, who, by doing so perhaps improves his strained relations with Netanyahu.

Are Israelis still in the streets demanding a Gaza cease fire to obtain release of the remaining hostages? They may be but if they are, we are not hearing, seeing or reading about it. Has Netanyahu made one of his speeches on the Gaza campaign since making the 100 yards between Gaza and Egypt, the Philadelphi Corridor, a red line? No, he has not.

Third, it says this diverts attention, especially American attention, from the limits, turmoil and civilians’ catastrophe in Gaza and redirects them to the north.

That is the nearly entire focus in that part of the world now of American TV news, including the non-stop, chaos-sowing cable news networks, and the major American newspapers and agencies like the New York Times, Washington Past and Associated Press.

You are not seeing reports from Gaza. You are seeing them from the border area and from Beirut.

Fourth, it says both for its own strategic purposes but also to affect our election only a few weeks later, the Netanyahu government is very possibly timing that full campaign to the Oct. 7 anniversary while it heightens American attention on its part of the world.

It is no mystery that Israel’s duplicitous prime minister wants to see Trump back in the White House, a place where he can whittle his wiles to get what he wants from America. He did it once. He counts on doing it again even as he knows that he, pardon one more trite, bare allusion, has the U.S.A. by the proverbials.

No administration – meaning no Democratic administration, meaning the present administration that includes Vice President Harris – dares to interrupt, reduce or, in the unthinkable here, halt the flow of American armaments.

It is that military supply line supplemented by Israeli ingenuity and home grown munitions that gives tiny Israel military (about the size of New Jersey with 7 million Jews and 2 million Arabs- the latter including Circasians, Christian Arabs and Druse) such unlikely dominance in a part of the world where it counts more than 400 million Arabs and Iranians who would destroy it or at least have it go away if they could.

It is late September, the leaves are turning and so are events. Is it a time from which you can see this October surprise coming, clearly taking the shape of war?

Be aware – and beware the 7th of October.

Bill Clinton, 35 Minutes, Really?

Brings back ’72 Dem Convention memories doesn’t It (Yes I was at that one with the AP). The one when they finally nominated Thomas Eagleton for VP in the wee hours of the morning and only then did George McGovern get to give the acceptance speech.

Of course by that time no one anywhere was watching and only Frank Sinatra was up – telling a story to a bartender named Joe.

Last night? Bill Clinton – for 35 minutes, really, still and wandering all over the place? We’re not bartenders Bill, there is a schedule at these things. But also lots of others not needed to be heard from and never mind their themes. Like the inauguration poet and her dramatic drivel? It was time wasting sentimental claptrap.

No, it was absolutey not okay, none of it.

It was supposed to be the night Tim Waltz got introduced to the nation. Yhea the Democratic Party has met him and likes him a lot, love him in fact. But the nation, the mass of voters, of TV watchers just looking in now? No, they don’t know him yet.

So the result of this all sloppy carelessness, of having the inauration poet and Stevie Wonder and this person and that person?

The result was that Tim Walz did not go on until 11:22 p.m. EDT when he should have been on precisely at 10 p.m. EDT.

And the means precisely. Any campaign pro, any advertising time buyer, can tell you there is a reason 10 p.m. TV time costs a whole hell of a lot more than at 11:30 p.m. What’s the difference? Most of the 10 p.m. audience has watched the local news at 11 and then gone to bed. It’s why “prime time” is 8 p.m. to 11 p.m.

Oh but ok it was still not that late moving west through the other three time zones, right? So it didn’t matter that much, right?

Wrong. It mattered a lot and it matters still. There are seven contested states. Three of them, Pennsylvania, said to be the most vital, North Carolina and Georgia are in the eastern time zone. It mattered plenty. It will going forward but it was a night, a lost prime time opportunity, that cannot be gotten back.

On MSNBC Laurence O’Donnell called it campaign “malpractice.”

Walz was great, hit all his marks, his themes, and did it in less than 20 minutes or so. But, becasue of the totally failed convention time management by others, he was over an hour late for the big audience.

Who was watching at 11:22? Democrats. But they don’t need convincing. Others not so invested in the show who might have been watching, might well have tuned out at 11 and gone to bed soon after.

Conventions aren’t that anymore. They are major TV shows. The hall is the set, the featured actors give speeches or are from TV news and their endless talky panels. The delegates are the extras. The V.P. nominee is the main supporting actor. He gets a night. Walz had his, but at nearly midnight.

The big star of course is the nominee for presient.

A nominee for president gets the last night. It is a night that is supposed to begin at 10 p.m. EDT so that with time built in for big entrances and exits, the actual speeches, audience responses and interruptions it concludes at or just about 11 p.m. EDT.

What does this mean?

It means Harris has to, in fact better be on at 10 p.m. EDT or heads should roll at the DNC and in her campaign.

If planned speakers have to be axed, even at the last moment then that has to happen. We’ll see if it does.

But if you want a true measure right now of how together the campaign is and how in charge of it she is, watch and see what time Kamala Harris takes the stage Thursday night at HER convention.

If it’s 11:22 p.m., she’s in trouble – we’re all in trouble.

Harris has to be on Thursday at exactly 10 p.m. EDT. Let’s see what happens.

Boom

Boom, it happened, everything since 1:45 p.m. Sunday, July 21.

Kamala Harris endorsed decidedly by the president.

$81 million raised in 24 hours, $100 million in 36 hours.

Sunday night, 44,000 women on one phone call (ever heard such a thing? No, I didn’t think so – the power of Black sororities you think?)

Next night, 40,000 Black men on another.

Everyone else mentioned for weeks as a candidate for president endorsed her within 24 hours.

Everyone else on the D side of the equation endorses her.

She makes a great stump appearance in Wilmington to bring in the Biden/Harris camapaign staff and make it the Harris campaign staff.

Most of us had never heard the stump speech so when we did it was and is a wow. Now we are wowed by the difference in who Democrats are sending out to battle the dragon.

The nomination secured Monday night by delegate count. The formal count to follow the first week of August.

That was the first 36 hours.

What happens next?

VP

Well start with the VP choice. Harris put former Attorney General Eric Holder in charge of vetting the choices.

Who are they? In all likelihood one of the four white men mentioned for the nomination.

It is received political understanding that the country is perhaps not ready for two women on the ticket, or a Black man VP candidate with a Black woman presidential candidate. Should it be so? No. Is it likely so in this country? The guess is yes. In politics, don’t guess if you don’t have to do it.

The four men are Governors Roy Cooper of North Carolina, who leaves office in January term limited; Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, in office just 18 months; Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky, mid-way through his second term; and Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, who is a superbe choice for all the reasons first identified here in a piece posted July 4, (weeks ahead of the commentariat, a self-pat on the back).

Harris knows and likes Cooper from their days together as state attorneys general, a plus for him as well as being governor two terms in a red state. He would make a superb choice for attorney general of the United States of America.

If you don’t follow politics closely had you heard of him until just this week? No, I didn’t think so. Neither has the country outside his state and some of its immediate region like South Carolina, Georgia and Tennessee, southern Virginia — all red states or red state territory.

Shapiro is a new and dynamic figure in politics, and at age 51 he has time. He has a great future that should include a second term and then succeeding Sen. Robert Casey, 64, who will be reelected this year but should think about retirement in 2030 when he’ll be 70 years old.

There is and will be a new perspective on age in politics going forward militating against candidates over age 70 and certainly past age 80. This is a swan song run for dozens of them in Congress, including Nancy Pelosi, James Clymer and Stenny Hoyer. All of you witll have to go peacefully into the grace of that good night.

Then too about Shapiro, a left over from that bothersome question about what the nation is ready for – is it ready for a Jewish vice president? It’s there. Ignore the question. But it’s there as every American Jew knows. If she chooses Kelly and they win, then the first man and the second lady will be Jewish. They would not be elected, expect by their spouses, but it is a notable fact that will be noted.

Could Shapiro bring the vital key Keystone State into the Democratic column in November? He could help as her choice but he will anyway greatly help Harris win the state – decisively.

Beshear, 47, is in the middle of his second term, a Democrat who got reelected as governor of crimson red Kentucky. He isn’t going to bring its meager electoral vote with him. That is beyond any Democratic presidential candidate’s hope, reach or expectation.

He is a popular, admired, well-like moderate who in the circumstances of Kentucky was able to win it twice. Does that mean he adds much in other red states or rural red parts of contested states? No, and it doesn’t matter because they are red states and red parts of states.

He has shown with the name of another former governor of the state, his father, Steven who brought Obamacare based Kentuckycare to the state, that he, the popular son, could win the trust of a majority in Kentucky. But Kentucky is not the nation – or anything like it.

Beshear has shown he can win Kentucky. But neither he nor any other Democrat can win or help win South Carolina, Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, Alabama, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Nebraska, North or South Dakota or the near far-west of Montana, Wyoming, Idaho.

Texas? It’s coming. Not this time but it’s coming on. However post this new Democratic presidential candidate energy there, is a true chance that Colin Allred will rid Texas of Tex Cruz.

Florida, now that is an interesting story for lots of reasons: abortion is on the ballot, sensible people, even some not sensible people are tired of having a really dumb guy as governor, DeSantis; and much disliked Sen. Rick Scott is up for election against a woman Democrat, Debbie Muscarell-Powsell, when – oh yes not -protecting abortion in the state constitution is on the ballot in Florida.

Remember that, abortion is on the Florida ballot. How do you think that will come out in a state of 27 million people who now have a DeSantis 6-week rule?

Florida is still red, but it is a lighter shade tinging purple in places. Put it this way. It is not in play but it is moving in the margins.

Back to VP possibilities then. Their states and to a lesser degree those in nearby states and political junkies have heard of the governors of Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Kentucky. But has the country? It’s a rhetorical question.

But the guess is you’ve heard of Mark Kelly – age 60, just a year older than the presidential candidate. Americans have heard of him and know about him not because he is a senator necesssarily – but because he is a former astronaut (and combat pilot) and husband of Gabby Gifford.

Since 1961 when it first got them, the nation has loved its astronauts.

His wife’s tragic but triumphant story we know as we do his part in it with her. It makes the couple the leading gun control advocates in a nation that, outside the warp of constitutional stricture on U.S. Senate representation, wants it.

In the first and last analysis, Vice President Harris will choose who she is comfortable with and who she believes adds to her ticket so all this is so much speculation until she does.

Still, as of Tuesday morning at least one news report said her choice had narrowed to Kelly or Shapiro, which makes sense if she decides the governor has to be on the ticket to win Pennsylvania. But he doesn’t and there are several days to test that in private polls and focus groups.

When will she decide? Not long. Maybe Sunday, the perfect day for a major announcement to control the following three days of the news cycle. But certainly by the middle of next week. It can’t wait, it can’t fester, it can’t afford camps lining up. So within a week to 10 days is a good guess.

Then what?

Polls

Oh the polls.

New ones be sure have been in the field starting Monday morning with initial reports perhaps this Thursday and then running through the next week.

What will they show? Best guess is they will show a big bump shooting Harris into a 6-point national lead and a 3-to-7 point lead variously in the six contested state, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. And – and signs from Ohio that the race is suddenly in play there where it seemed not at all possible to the political cognoscenti.

Why Ohio? They elected J.D. Vance by 6 points in 2022, an off-year but are just now actually finding out who he is and what he thinks. He thjinks like 40% of Ohio actually, not a majority of it.

Also in play in Ohio is that Sherrod Brown, an immensley popular U.S. Senator, is on the ballot and that state constitutional abortion rights won with 58% last year statewide.

Ah, but that was last year. True but now they know Vance is totally, unalterably against except abortion rights except when he waffles about abortion after rape or incest. He needs a new waffle iron for the times he has hemmed and haw hawed on that one.

Ohio? Unions, the infrastructure bill, and the Chip bill investment in reindustrialization are big, big things in the manufacturing state of Ohio.

The DNC

And then there is the Democratic National Convention convening Aug. 19, a television show yes but in this case the Harris/Who She Names show. It will be loud, raucous, celebratory, feature a standing ovation for Joe Biden to rival that of 12 minutes for Bobby Kennedy at the 1964 Democratic National Convention in his memorial for JFK.

It will be a doozy of a political show that will send the Democratic ticket rocketing. It’s the way these things go. It is being held late in August so that it does not compete with the Olympics.

Debates

The debates? There is supposed to be a VP debate between now and the Democratic convention. That could happen or be delayed but if you were J.D. Vance with his limited range would you want to go up against Mark Kelly’s knowledge in the Senate? Or an incisive truly articulate Gov. Shapiro? No, you don’t, you really don’t.

And the other one, the second Trump/Biden debate?

It is now the first Trump/Harris debate. Every Trump lie will be called out immediately and clearly, every stupid statement too, with sound Biuden accomplishments noted and plans for the future laid out by Harris. Any hint of physical intimidation like Hilary sufffered will be shattered.

Trump has to show up. If he doesn’t it looks worse than if he does. But if he shows up, and he will, she will slaughter him, at long last he will be flayed and laid bare for all to see.

So? So the forecast for Democrats is bright political sunshine up and down the ballot everywhere outside the dismally dark red states – the ones so ironically that also got Obamacare Medicaid expansion, and are getting federal infrastructure money, federal chip industrial investment, and whose voters especially depend on Medicare and Social Security. Red states are lost places where political appreciation, gratitude and who cares about you are unknown.

In the next four years they will, like the rest of us, get expanded child care and child tax credits, a continued emphasis on climate change law and regulation, a fairer tax code and furthr industrial reinvestment – all good stuff.

Because Boom, since Sunday it is at last where the nation is going.

Then Who?

Vice President Kamala Harris. Only Vice President Harris. She wasn’t ready four years ago. She is now – entirely.

Any Democrat who wants. to give her a food fight for the nomination would be/will be as selfish a fool as Biden had been to this moment.

Every one of the other Democrats being talked about for Pesident this week needs to say no I am not and will not run, I support the vice president – and no one else for president.

To do anything else or less would be as mindlessly selfish as the president was until the moment when the Detroit Free Press reported him down 7 points in Michigan, which could well have been what finally penetrated his wall of denial.

One thing the Democratic Party must do is to make it clear Harris is the candidate and cut the media off from its entirely stupid, empty speculation.

Then, the vice presidency?

The choice here remains Sen. Mark Kelly.

He is from a contested state, Arizona. he is married to and great partner of a victim of gun violence and with her, Gabby Gifford, a stirring voice for gun control.

He is a former military officer, combat pilot and astronaut – in sum a man, a hero if you will who the nation knows. He does not have to be introduced to the country.

We all know Mark Kelly. We like Mark Kelly.

He is a sensible, down the middle liberal and finally, juxtapose him with the the other, the fake – J.D.Vance. One has been in the Senate 18 months, the other for six years and twice elected after distinguished military and NASA service to the United States of America.

This space hopes its Kelly but is certain that whoever it is, VP Harris already knows and made up her mind weeks ago. She needs no one’s advice. It is her first decision as first Democrat and she will make a good one.

The only thing standing in the way of a massive Democratic Party victory is to have a nomination contest.

President Biden endorsed her within an hour of withdrawing.

The entire Democratic Party must and will in the days ahead – then watch the polls take off.

Nothing to Do with Nothing

We already know he was 20.

They’ve told us his name. They will confirm that.

We just learned he was a registered Republican – got that, a 20-year-old Republican.

He was from Pennsylvania, a town called Bethel Park near Pittsburgh and about 35 miles from Butler, Pa., also near Pittsburgh.

In other words? In other words he committted his crime right at home in suburuban Western Pennyslvania.

What did you expect? A worldwide plot? Nope, a lost young guy alone with a gun.

We are going to find out that some 20 year olds get guns and kill 20 kids in a school.

We are going to find out this one easily got a gun and shot at a candidate.

From where? Where did he shoot?

From a rooftop 150 yards away that you could surveil with a Walmart drone or a dozen. But the Secret Service didn’t do that.

But then they didn’t surveil the Book Depository Window on Dealey Plaza in Dallas no Nov. 23, 19663. You’d think they’d figure that one out by now. They didn’t.

That is all they are going to find and they will conclude if he really knew how to use a sniper rifle he could not have missed from that distance.

They are not going to find anything more. Not a plot. Not a civil war.

Nope, just another sad, alienated 20-year old loser, a boy barely a man acting out and saying look at me, look at me.

Just another stupid, lost young, lonely, alienated mal-adjusted man showing off, barely a man, who easily got a gun no one should have had.

It changed nothing but it will change everything because the Republican Party will now go off on a crazy, repressive, tear of fear, hate and loathing, while the Democratic Party will let go its very real and necessary attempt to replace Mr. Biden.

Chances are? Chances are, heat, climate change, Trump, disorder and chaos.

In fact, this has absolutely nothing to do with anything except a deranged young man and a rooftop that should have been under bargain store drone suerveillance.

If you are expecting that the next four months or next ten year to tell us all something different, well it’s not.

But the media will do it non-stop and so you will think it is so. It isn’t, it won’t be but…

It isn’t what it looked like. It never was but it will become whatever anyone wants it to look like.

In this country that makes for total chaos.

The French and Us

We and the French, forever united by the Marquis de Lafayette.

At the age of 24 he joined George Washington in the field and became one of the American leader’s youngest and most outstanding officers and strategists (strategy not being a long suit of Washington).

In mid-1781, Washington granted Lt. Col. Alexander Hamilton’s wish to command in combat at Yorktown. There served under Continental Army General Lafayette while a French fleet blockaded the English (as Benjamin Franklin had worked assiduously and succesfully to charm the French in Paris to secure their arms, military and naval participation, and money.)

Arriving in France 150 years later, it was only fitting that Gen. John (Blackjack) Pershing declared, “Lafayette we are here.” We were “over there” and we would have to come again.

The French and Americans forever have had this love-hate relationship as we were again so rightfully reminded June 6 this year.

But where are we now? Where is France now? Now in this pregnant moment in history, this moment when both nations are in danger of slipping off the edge, of cascading into sordid eras of militant, mindless, ignorance; slipping into eras when mindless nativism and native Fascists rise ruthlessly in both

Understand, Fascists do not govern, they rule and they ruin. If Donald Trump, American Fuhrer, Duce, Cuadillo – call him what you will, and they all mean leader – becomes president he will not govern. Others will for him. He will rule. They will wreck.

Be assured as you read this that he knows nothing, knows none of the little of American history in this piece. Let us not forget then when president he said, he actually exclaimed, “Lincoln was a Republican, who knew?”

Trump is an ignorant, deranged beast, inellectually savage, incapable of knowing or caring about what is true, and interested only in his photo ops, adulatory mobs, fake physical appearance and others’ physical appearances for the camera.

No, Trump will not govern, he will rule, as the Supreme Court has declared, turning 1787 on its head – as a king. So much for original intent, which the founders abundantly and definitievely said meant and should never again mean a king.

He may not have a plan, he never has a plan. But those around him do. We have seen the plan, they’ve published it. It is the 20/25 plan and their latest innovation is a call to resume nuclear testing. Imagine that.

It is a plan to dismantle the American government, to repress all who disagree or dare to disagree and, worse, to pummel and punish them.

“It can’t happen here?” Oh really, you think so?

It has been happening here for years as Trump and his henchmen and women have, like alien creatures, invaded, taken over and, being the political and social cannibals they are, eaten from inside out the body of an American pollitical party that exists now in name only. It is happening. If Trump wins, it will have happened.

Until now wherever France’s politics have taken the French, a majority of them have known one thing. They do not want again to live under or in Vichy France.

They or at least a majority of the French have understood that Le Pen – and before her, her father and their party -represent that and far worse – represent the worst of and in France, represent the Velodrome deportations by the gendarmes for the Germans in 1942, represent the traitor Petain and the quisling Lavalle in Vichy.

To elect Trump here is to elect Vichy or worse than Vichy here in American terms. To elect Penn and her Party is to elect Vichy in France and worse than Vichy.

A real example where we might be going? Among recent columns in the New York Times along with many about the Biden debate debacle, Gaza, Ukraine, and all that, is a piece about diet and retail food choices.

It reports what other nations are doing to regulate food and drink packaging messaging to indicate risks to health they contain in sugars and other additive substances.

The piece promotes federal health and food regulation to establish clearer health messaging on packaged comestilbles.

It should have been revised to note the impact of the ruling by the mob of six on the U.S. Supreme Court when on Friday they upended the 1984 high court judicial Chevron doctrine.

Until Friday, that jurisprudence had been adhered to for 40 years by federal courts giving deference to regulatory agency expertise and informed, educated ability with judicial respect for Stare Decisis.

It is why you can look at the back of a food package and learn its percentage of sodium, sugar and the like. It is why we have rules and regulations on clear air. Regulation is why Boeing has to explain its door problem, why it even has a flying door problem.

Under the court’s new rule the food industry will be able to stop any further such information being given to the public. And be sure it do that as will every other industry seek to rip apart necessary public regulation. You do not have to have been a public regulator as I was to understand that most basic fact in a nation of 340 million people.

These justices, six of them at least, do not know the law or the Constitution. Then how can they know everything? AI is busy learning everything and even it can’t.

A law may say a public agency must maintain order on a train and the appropriate agency shall adopt regulations to govern such order. The agency not the law, will say that means you can’t spit or urinate or smear feces in a rail car. That is called regulation.

This is but one example of what is to come. And it will come to pass as will the jails of the mind, but also of the body. So will the camps.

Oh but you say, we have a Constitution and a Bill of Rights?

Ha -ha and ha again. Those elected from and those put on the courts from Trump world will as the court did Friday, ride roughshod across them. How do we know? Listen to what they say, what Trump says. Read what they say they will do, what they say in writing they will have him do. Look at Judge Cannon, look at Alito giving his American impression of Roland Friesler.

Hitler and his party achieved their highest, pre-chancellorship election result in June 1933 at 37%. In December that year he slipped to 32%. He became chancellor on Jan. 30, 1934.

Three months later his party scored its highest election result, still with all power and his left opponents banned from the election, just 42%. After that it was too late. He didn’t have to defeat his opponents in elections. He had them locked them up in the camps. Germany had no more elections.

But is this all so much arcane German history or is there a present American anology? And one for the French? Why go into all that? Because it is in its way a prelude.

Our presidential elecitons are governed by an 18th Century white male oligarchy’s mechanism, the Electoral College. They put it in their Constitution, a political deal in that moment in late 1787, to insulate government,their government, from the public. It has done that three times so far in this century. Three times since 2020 the Democratic candidate has won the popular vote but lost the presidency in the Electoral College.

Germany in 1933? France now? What’s the link to us, to the U.S. today? Simple, it’s democracy. You keep it or you lose it and if you lose it you are lost with it.

First projections from France, which are always right on the mark, indicate the Fascists preliminary win at about 34% of the vote Sunday June 30,but not a majority in the National Assembly. The allied left received 28% of the vote, and Macron’s right-center fell to 21%.

There are 577 National Assembly districts in Metropolitan and overseas France. Candidates are selected in and from each district.The final decision will be made tomorrow, July 7, 2024 in a second round. A candidate must have 12% to go forward to the second round – not 12% of the first round district vote turnout, but 12% of the registered voters in the district.

But they don’t have to go forward.They can withdraw to help another candidate. A Macron candidate in third place could withdraw to help one on the left, or vice versa.

The big if is whether the center and left factions can agree to back their strongest candidates, withdraw their weakest ones and prevail in unity against the Facists.

Macron’s center right is malleable. The issue is the left alliance because based on past performance it will likely resist amalgamation. We will know the final result Sunday.

Will that result tell us it can’t happen here or will it tell us it is going to happen here as well?

Make no mistake, this election, our election Nov. 4, is the one in which finally we will find out whether Sinclair Lewis was a prophet? Or if we need to announce to France, to Lafayette, that we have succumbed, forget us, we are not coming ever again.

We and the French, bound in history, driven by the same devils, together in the present.

October Surprise

We all know what that is, what it can be, how it can change a race, guarantee the outcome of a race, in this case the wrong race, the one for president.

So short, sweet and to the point.

What if an October surprise is a stroke for the president or a similar medical emergency?

Then what? Then we lose, we lose up and down the ballot.

Can he tell you that won’t happen? Can’t happen?

No, he cannot and no doctor can either.

Can we chance that?

Under no circumstances. None.

Leave now Mr. President, pick up your winnings in Gaza that look like they are on the verge.

Above all, don’t do to VP Harris what Obama did to you and discard her at the very most wrong time.

Leave with a ringing endorsement for her, head off any other candidates for president, and let us hope she sees why her best choice, her only choice for VP is Sen. Mark Kelly.

We cannot sit for 4 months waiting and waiting for worse.

There is no time for it.

October is too long a bet.

D-for Debate Day – V for Veep

If you understand it as D-day as in D for debate, President Biden’s withdrawl has to come about D plus 6, 7 or 8. That is the middle of next week.

Biden has about that little time to come to the only sensible, smart conclusion – that he has to leave the race to preserve a chance for a Democrat to retain the White House and avoid a down ballot debacle.

He has to do that next week. He doesn’t have time to burn. Democrats do not have time to indulge him clinging to the shred of a notion he can win. He can’t.

On the face of it he can still garner hesitant support as he did after meeting with Democratic governors. He’s the president. It is hard to say no to presidents.

After the meeting the governors sent out a delegation of Tim Walz of Minnestoa, Wes Moore of Maryland, and Kathy Hochul of New York.

They said we have to win and he is leading us. But they left space. They did. After all, they are politicians. They know how to say what they need to but leave space for more being said another time, saying for now this and that and that and this and the other thing too.

Ah but Jill Biden is all in, she is his key advisor and she is an immovable object. So they say. So we are told.

Jill Biden’s immitation of Marie Antoinette, unfortunately coinciding with her appearance on the cover of Voge wearing a $5,000 designer outfit, kind of discordantly underscoring the point.

Hunter Biden counseling his father at Camp David? This has to stop. He’s the president’s son. If he want to help he will stay away from the presidency, not be an ever present reminder of himself around it.

Jill Biden sleeps with the president every night they are under the same roof, not the political cognoscenti, not the donors, not the editorial writers and not the voters.

The last person he talks to at night and the first one he sees in the morning is Jill Biden. He married her nearly 50 years ago. But no one ever voted for her, no one ever elected her. It is unfortunate the President’s family can be most discordant and not a help. He has never seen it or seemed to want to let himself see it.

The president’s base writes comments on NY Times stories and the like all the time. They are his base and they are almost universally insistent he must leave the race and equally determined to say that Jill Biden needs to butt out.

Listen to your base Mr. President.

If you recall reading a post here immediately the night of the debate, it predicted the next spate of public polls would show the president falling behind by 6 points to 8 points when they came out several days into the following week – which is now.

Today, five polling days after the debate, the New York Times/Sienna survey shows Biden trailing Trump by 6, Trump at 49, his highest polling score ever.

What will happen? That is up to Joe Biden and to a degree, too large a degree, Jill Biden.

But let’s hypothesize and say he does do what has to be done and quits the race next week, then who.

Leading the pack are of course Vice President Harris. Then there are the governors of whom the most often mentioned are Gavin Newsom of California, Gretchen Kramer of Michigan, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and perhaps Wes Moore of Maryland.

Gov. Kramer said just this week she does not want to run and will not. Gov. Shapiro is a damn good savvy governor but has only been in that job for 18 months and has no national profile. Gov. Moore also has been on the job for all of 18 months. He is Black. It should not matter because he is a really good governor and a super communicator, but this country is not ready for an all-Black top ticket. Like Shapiro, Moore is little known in the nation.

Some have mentioned Hakeem Jeffries, a consumate man of the House. His ambition is to be Speaker. That is a very different kind of political ambition from the presidency. His focus this year, every two years will be on the Speakership. He will be a good one but he won’t be president.

Gov. Newsom is from California and so from the standpoint of people not from California, wildly liberal. He has a substantial national profile but it is sharply divisive.

Would sane Democrats stop or try to stop the first Black woman vice president with a white opponent, especially a white man? And that in a year when there is a small but reportable crack in the solidity of the Black vote for the Democratic President? Good luck with that. It would be political harikiri.

Then there is Kamala Harris, the vice president. Well as a presidential candidate, let’s face it, she bombed. In a game of musical chairs to choose a Black woman running mate, which circumstances and Biden had locked himself into in 2020, she was ultimately the likely if not necessarily most wanted choice. Things did not improve in her first year and some months as Veep.

Then they got better and now they are much better. Biden and his people coached her and finally began to let her do real things, here and in Europe and on the world stage.

She has stepped forward as a powerful, focused camapaigner, especially on women’s rights and choice. If two years ago she got a C-, today she gets an A. It is that stark an improvement and, in making it, she has demonstrated she can learn and grow in capacity and vision.

So – so if the president withdraws it has to be Harris because she has grown immensley and has seen the presidency from inside – she can step into all his administration has been doing without missing a step, here or abroad.

The campaign is sitting on $227 million. Legally it was given to and belongs to the Biden-Harris campaign. If Biden steps aside then it belongs to her and no one else. Who else can raise that in a month or less, who would want to run the fool’s errand of trying to divide major Democratic donors so late on the election calendar?

A contest pitting several candidates against her would be a food fight to and through the Convention in Chicago in late August, a congregation pointing toward a political conflagration just two months before the election.

It would be a convention with no idea what to do to choose a candidate from among serveral. It was not convened for that purpose. It was convened to coronate, not to choose.

The coverage of a contested convention? Well, if you are old enough to remember the 1968 Democratic National Convention you know it would be ugly and all the more so for taking place 56 years later in the same city, Chicago.

Such a week will be replete with TV clips from 1968, savage Fox lies, on-line distortions, and could very possibly feature Pro-Palestinian actors taking up the role of the Yuppies.

Big food fights leave a mess. The mess of such a Democratic National Convention would be impossible to clean up this year, next year, for how many years?

The only way to head it off? If not Biden it can only be Harris.

Of course, if she wins she will run in 2028 as an incumbent. But that is years off and this political D-Day is upon Democrats.

If Harris becomes the presidential nominee, she’ll need someone to take her spot. Who then would she choose to run with? No one particularly has looked at that. It’s time now.

Trump could very well have been ghosting everyone with his final three. It was and is entirely possible he’ll choose someone else. Why? Because he’s crazy and likes to do crazy thing for the shock and ratings values. He as much as said so, this first week in July with a Trump convention starting July 15, that his choice is on hold while the Dems are in this fix.

It should be observed that every day they are caught up in this drama is a day miserable deranged orange colored Trump gets a free pass.

We do know that Harris or if not Harris, someone else has to be at the vice presidential debate with someone to be nominated by Trump for vice president. That is supposed to happen in late July. But aleady it is July isn’t it? Oh dear!

What someone we don’t know yet should debate what other someone we don’t know yet in about three weeks? Think of it like that because, well that’s where it is. Some year.

Then who should Harris choose if she gets to choose?

  • A white man. Has to be if a Black woman goes to the top of the ticket.
  • Someone from one of the six or seven contested states.
  • Someone with a meaningful national profile because it is late to start introducing someone on the national stage.
  • Message to Newsom, constitutionally it can’t be someone from California
  • Someone who is not and didn’t want to be in mix for president after Biden but now has to answer this national call to service.
  • Someone who does not raises hackles,who is perceived as a good guy, a liberal moderate who does not say bad words in public because he is a civil man with manners.
  • Someone with meaningful federal political and governmental experience.

Question: So who? Who is the someone no one has mentioned but they better start thinking about, the someone who fits all of the above criteria?

Answer: Sen. Mark Kelly, who happens to hold the Arizona senate seat once held by John McCain – which would be noticed in a big, good way should he be the Veep candidate.

Arizona is in play. He is in the first third of a first full term and if Harris/Kelly were to win then a Democratic governor would name a Democratic successor to Kelly in the Senate but if they lost he would still be a senator for at least four years.

He is, and we all know it, a former astronaut.

Everyone likes astronauts. Outside of and never mind politics, astronauts are known – and liked.

Everyone mostly knows about his wife, Gabby Giffords, and how their story speaks to love, loyalty, compassion, and strength that all add up to one word – character. He has it, they have it together. It is another reason and another way the country knows Sen. Kelly and their work together for gun control.

From what we know about him, he’d resist. He doesn’t want the presidency or the vice presidency and all that stuff. But he has always answered the nation’s call. He answered it to be a combat pilot, answered it becoming an astronaut, and when a bullet ended his wife’s political career he stepped forward to service in the Senate.

If Harris issues a call to him to seek the vice presidency will he answer it? I am certain he will.

So, if Harris gets to lead her ticket it will be common, political, and decent right sense to prevail on Mark Kelly to join her. He is the best choice. He is, far and away, the only choice.

The 2024 Election

June 27, 2024:

Joe Biden decisively lost the 2024 election in the debaclebate tonight in Atlanta.

No need to dwell on all the reasons. Suffice it to say neither of the CNN characters asked this simple most basic question, “Mr. Trump, you lost the 2020 election, will you admit that?”

It should have been the first thing asked of Trump and the last thing asked of him. It was never asked.

Its absence is but one of dozens of moments Bash and Jake did not do their jobs and Trump did his.

If you have ever counseled a candidate on how to deal with the press/media in any forum you know that you tell them this, you drill them in this:

Do not answer the question you were asked; answer the question you want to answer or answer no question. Acknowledge the question then ignore it and say what you want.

Trump did it all night and as always got away with dozens of outright lies. Lying is all he does.

Anyone could have told anyone else that Trump would work to come across as calm and reasonable; that he would defy and deny the media take about who and what he is.

He did it and got away with it, especially in comparison to Biden’s enormous failure and clear old age fragility,

Trump did that, lying all the way, but he gets away with it all because by comparison Joe Biden looked and sounded like the vacant, confused, old uncle you have to visit at the nursing home.

Dem candidates across the nation will be running and ducking for cover because beside losing the presidency this night, Joe Biden might well have lost the U.S. Senate, even the House.

So what to do?

If Biden is the candiate he, and perhaps Democrats, will lose decisivley. The next wave of polls will likely show Trtump up 6, even 8 points. That is how it will come out unless?

Unless Biden has a sensible moment and a good dose of self-appreciation, honesty, and a lot of humility, and agrees to get out.

It was the conclusion of everyone with whom I texted tonight during this debacle within the first 10 minutes that he needs to admit this and leave the field.

But then who? And there are a dozen good. possibilities. The governors of Califonia, Michigan, Illinois, Dem senators up for election this year like Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, who can be replaced because a replacement can win; but not those who can’t be replaced because only they can win in their states like Sherrod Brown in Oho. Or are you thinking of Michele Obama (dream on, she hates politics)

And of course Kamala Harris – but is she or isn’t she a problem? Well on CNN later she made a vital, coherent, sharp, focused defense of the president, as she addressed the issues and unmaksed Trump with all the fervor and articutelness the President lacked entirely.

She is the best prepared Dem to replace him and has learned an enormous amount the past three and a half years, emerging as able and qualified.

So she could logically be the choice? Yes, except – except the country juist does not like her and there just isn’t time, there is no time to change that. There just is not time for that.

Then who? Who Like Andy Kim in New Jersey, but on a much larger stage is daring enough to step forward, in this instance before Juy 4, to claim the prize.

Who is there to say right now, within days who will dare to say, “I am ready and I ask the president to stand aside and let us Democrats decide on a different nominee to finish the job he has so briliiantly done to this moment, this crossroad in American nationhood and democracy.”

Someone must.

There is only one place now that can be decided and that is at the convention, which suddenly gets very real, changing from a predictable political show into an historicmoment and opportunity.

Let us remember that Abraham Lincoln won his nomination on a seemingly audacious and spontanous eruption of enthusaism for him, for the man from Illinois, which just happened to start in the galleries filled with native Illinoisans at the convention inside the Wigwam in Chicago.

Let us recall that a sudden outburst of cries of “We Want Wilkie” swept through the Republicans in Philadelphia in the summer oif 1940 as they nominated Wendell Wilkie.

Let us recall that no one really knew for sure whether FDR was serious about a 3rd term until a distant voice started and led a chant for him that rose and spread across the delegations gathered in Chicago at the Democratic National Convention in mid-1940.

Where did those cries to renominate FDR originate? In the basement of the convention hall over a loudspeaker manned by Chicago’s head of public works, a loyal party man. It swept away the opposition and swept FDR to a third nomination and 3rd term.

Could that happen now, in this world? We may find out. It may indeed be very necessary that we do.

This can happen. If it does not, if Biden refuses to go and fights for renomination in the face of party despair and a real movement to replace him, it will be a political catastrophe.

If it is opened to the convention without Biden there will be three or four real candidates – but they need to be in the field by the end of the first week in July, giving them perhaps a month.

Whoever dares tosteps forward, to supercharge politics first will become the favorite.

JFK’s remembrance is largely myth and his real moment and importance as president is exaggerated and understood now to have been far less than credited in his moment and in his sudden, tragic death But this is a moment like his memory.

This is a Kennedyesque moment.

Can the right person step foward to capture the faith of her or his party right now? Could it?

Yes. But it is a gamble with long odds and there are no more than 10 days for that to begin.

It will be a lot easier if Joe Biden can be convinced he has to withdraw. Who can convince him? In the end from all we know that is only his family and principally Jill Biden. Would they? Would she? Will they? Will she?

How would any of us know? We don’t.

Otherwise? Otherwise none of us can imagine this country, this nation anymore. And if Trump wins and has the Congress and already has the court, as he does, then this nation as we have known it will end. It will.

Reminiscence

My son’s piece today on Politico

(https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/03/03/biden-can-still-win-if-he-runs-like-harry-truman-00144499)

It reminded me, reminds me of all this, and more but this is enough just now.

I remember, at age 6, two things about being at the 1948 Progressive Party Convention.

The next convention I attended was as an AP reporter. It nominated ill-fated George McGovern in 1972. Then for me came Kansas City and Ford and NYC and Carter in 1976, and a ticket to the Clinton nomination in 1992. The latter came courtesy of the same son, a page then with the New Jersey Jim Florio folks and Democratic Convention Delegation, courtesy of a contact made for him by someone he knew, and then making his own big impression there.

In 1948, I remember traveling to Philadelphia with my mother on the old Pennsylvania Railroad, recall the plush sort of red/maroon and green colored seats with the with the snow-white headrest cloths. I remember the conductors with the real caps and cap badges, the red caps, and the man who came around with sandwiches and drinks, like orangeade in a cardboard cylinder, which I had and thought probably the best drink in the world.

I remember also being on the floor near the stage at Shibe Park and seeing my father on the stage in what seemed serious talk with Paul Robeson, who I met that summer near the swimming hole on the property of Yip Harburg at Peekskill, N.Y.

Yarburg earlier wrote “Buddy Can You Spare A Dime?” and was in the midst of his great success with “Finian’s Rainbow” for which he wrote the lyrics. I recall someone, don’t know who, fetched my mother and 2-year-old sister, and me from the rail station at Peeskill in a green Chevrolet Woody. No, it wasn’t Harburg. I never met him, just stayed at his cottage for a week and swam in his swimming pond.

Yip Harburg also wrote the lyrics for “It’s Only a Paper Moon” and, guess what? “Over the Rainbow”. In fact, he wrote all the lyrics for all the songs of the iconic Judy Garland movie “Wizard of Oz” including “Ding Dong…” and “If I Only Had a Brain…” and “We’re Off to See…”

But, notwithstanding all of those gifts to America, for writing so much of what is now so indelibly American – for being left he got blacklisted anyway later by the same people as we see today, the political progeny, the ones who so witlessly grovel for and celebrate the absolute abyss that is Trump.

The emerging name then was McCarthy, Joe not Kevin, and like today’s henchmen named Cruz, Johnson, Hawley, and Scott (Fla.) he had henchmen named Knowland, Jenner, Mundt, Bridges and, lest we forget and we should remember now and then, Joe Kennedy.

One of Joe’s sons, Robert worked for Joe McCarthy, was among those who accompanied his body back to Wisconsin for burial and made him godfather to his first kid, Kathleen. The older son, Jack, courting the Catholic hard right vote then and in the future, purposefully missed the 1956 U. S.Senate vote to censure McCathy (67 for censure to 22 against, with four not voting, Jack Kennedy and three others).

But even he, Tailgunner Joe (defender of the SS troops who mowed down our guys at Malmedy) was even far less dangerous than this one.

You know the old saw, hindsight is perfect vision? Well it is and it applies now to the Broadway bully. Bad as he was, and he was – a snorting drunk used by Roy Cohn to try to keep his boyfriend, G. David Shine out of the Army – McCarthy was not even close to the one now, the one whose third wife lives at golf country clubs.

Our danger today could be the same slow-walked but then frenzied headlong rush to national suicide as Germany’s in 1932 – and we know what happened there from January 30, 1933 onward. Onward there to near total, entirely deserved destruction.

Risen from those ashes are Germany today, never to be wholly trusted, and, it seems, us, the U.S. today in our might and yet lingering domination. Their Fuhrer sought world domination. He caused it to happen. Only he didn’t get it. We did.

Those Germans had their man, the deranged, mutilated Fuhrer . We have ours. The deranged, mutilated Trump. Der Fuhrer ist Trump is the fuhrer.

I remember the week during our stay at Yip Harburg’s cottage, being at the swim hole coming out of the pond and seeing Paul Robeson, propped against a tree, reading a book he put down to say hello when my mother wrapped me in a striped towel and told me there was someone I should meet. He said to me in yes that big, rich warm voice, “I know your daddy and he’s a fine man.”

But what do I know? I was wet, shivering, and 6.

I know he said thatl. I have never forgotten hearing him say it.

Now, nearly 76 years later, it is as Yogi said, “deja vu all over again”.

Everything changes. Nothing changes. In 1933 it was the Germans. Today it’s us. Maybe. We’ll find out in November – possibly.You’ll see, I’ll see. We’ll all see.

I wonder what my six year-old grandkid will see in the next 76 years, will it be worth recalling? Where will her world have been, what will it be? Will Trump, Zuckerberg and Musk win? Will we be a nation of zombies? Or will we be so many of the people I remember well across a lifetime?

It could be the best thing about mine, my life, is that I will not be here to find out.

For me very much most of the next 75 years will have no reminiscence.

Or is this, now, the end of reminiscence?

Still, I wish my grandkids could taste that that orangeade and drink it from a cone shaped paper container. It was the best.

Navalny

This is less about the man than about the country Russia and the people of Russia and their departed saviour, Alexei Navalny.

As to the overflowing praise of and for him, pause.

Incipient in the conundrum of his death, an inevitable one once he decided to return to Russia after recovery in a German hospital from poisoning by Russians, are these questions.

What was he, what would have happened if he had been allowed to live – which he could be not be allowed, at least not in Russia, all of which, of course, he knew?

In life, death and in Russia’s history in all ways a classic Russian dissenter, Navalny knew that over and over, again and again, throughout time, Russians submit to one-man rule like sheep.

Call him Tsar or, as in the cases of Elisabeth and Catherine the Great, Tsarina – with only the checks of a simmering nobility and/or plotting spouse to threaten assassination as a last resort – or actually do it as in the deaths of Tsars Peter III in 1762 and Paul I in 1801 – Russia’s emperors ruled with absolute authority.

With their absolute authority they absolutely ruined their nation and their mostly enslaved people – enslaved by them – sheep with no more freedom than the livestock they were, maybe less since unlike sheep they were not mute, dumb animals.

The last Tsar, Nicholas. II, was overthrown in 1917. In 1918 along with his German wife besotted by mindless superstitious religion, with their hemophiliac son and heir apparent, and with their three daughters, he was murdered by the Bolsheviks in the basement of a small house in Yekaterinburg as the Russians fought a civil war.

Their intention went beyond killing the last Tsar. The Bolsheviks meant to kill Tsarism for good and all.

The civil war pitted the Russian White Army, allied with up to 100,000 Czech mercenaries, the British and, yes, 13,000 American troops on one side, and a score of other nations, against the new Red Army led ruthlessly by Leon Trotsky for the Bolsheviks.

It ended with the Red Army victorious in Russia though the Poles defeated the Reds in 1920,forcing Russia to settle for eastern bounaries of the restored Polish state favoring Poland. In August 1939 the Nazi-Soviet Pact dissolved those boundaries.

Victorious against the Whites, the Boleheviks then gave what to Russia? They gave it a new Tsar after all. First Lenin, then after him out of the lunacy of divisions among the Bolsheviki, a new title emerged to embody their new, improved auotcratic, insular despotic repression.

From their internecine struggle emerged triumphant Joseph Stalin, nee Joseph Dzhugashvili, born not in Russia but in Georgia in the Caucuses, a man ruthless beyond ruthlessness.

The new title of this non-Russian new Tsar? General Secretary – not of the nation but of the ruling Communist Party. First taken by Stalin, the title and the power survived until Mikhail Gorbachev. He, the last General Secretary, was discarded because he tried modestly to change the rigid, totally despotic, very failed Russian state the party ruled.

After the fall of the last General Secretary for a short time, as short as after 1917, came a void that gifted Russia with a chaotic, drunk, Boris Yeltsin, with the title President, an honorific born of Russia’s sudden pretense of democracy.

He was quickly overcome by the old party apparatus as it moved surreptitiously under the guise of democracy, fomented by the scheme of a schemer, a former secret police officer, a onetime mid-level KGB functionary from Petersburg Vladimir Putin:

In the vaccum, a momentary void of history, the wholly imoral, thoroughly corrupt and corrupting Putin took all power driven by his demonic, demagogic determination to restore the Russian/Soviet empire and rule it as – as Tsar.

In such momentary voids, history has a way of vomiting up the worst men and standing aside as they seize power or try to – Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin, Mao, Orbin, Putin, Trump.

As devious as Stalin, as imperious as Lenin, as performative as Kruhschev, more single minded than Brezhnev, Putin became the new Tsar/General Secretary with, again, a different title. Like Yeltsin, he calls himself and the world calls him president. He isn’t. He is the general secretary, qua Tsar.

He is 71. After him comes what in Russia? No one knows, but it is a reasonable bet that whatever it is in very short order will resolve into a new statism, a new reign of the strong man as despot, who is the law, the one and only law in Russia.

Had he lived, would Navalny, who in his way begged to die, have led Russia into democracy, liberty and freedom? Or? Or cloaked in that aura would he have become the next strong man of Russia?

We can never know because his death wish is fulfilled. But we do know that he tempted that wish, having returned there with the certainty that by going back he did not merely beg his fate, he determined it. He would die – or he would survive to be enshrined in some new fashion in the Kremlin. Most likely he would die, murdered as he is now.

There is no real movement in Russia for those things we praise – democracy and liberty. There are dissidents, very much mostly in exile. It has been ever thus. Lenin, Stalin and Trotsky spent decades outside Russia looking and wanting in until, arriving there, they sent others into exile or to the same prisons where they had been sent or, worse, to death in untold thousands.

Russia has a population of 143 million. The opposition there had one face, one name, that of Navalny. So now what? Don’t promise yourself you know. The only thing history knows is that despots wear Russia like a tight glove inside which, the fingers that are the Russian people barely wiggle but otherwise hardly move.

Was Navalny, a man very much about himself, a Democrat, was he a liberal? Or was he the next autocrat? Given the firmly settled history of Russia and Russians to seek and submit to an autocrat, we should not assume Navalny represented a different Russian. But, given his choice to return to his death, neither we nor history can know or will know.

What we can glean from all of it and more is this. Never expect different or better from Russia or Russians.

You will be disappointed.

Muerte a La Inteligencia, Que? Quando?Ahora en Los Estados Unidos?

In 1912 Spain and France divided the kingdom of Morocco, until then independent under its sultan (today Morocco is a united, independent kingdom).

The Spanish got the worst of the deal but did get the territory opposite the Rock, Gibraltar, held by the British since the Napoleonic wars on the Iberian Peninsula (the Napoleonic king of Spain, Joseph Bonaparte, half-brother of the emperor, fled Spain, ending up, same as me a few years later, in, of all places, Bordentown, N.J.). 

Spanish Morocco held a strategic position on the African side of the Straits of Gibraltar (today Spain still holds two Moroccan cities on the Mediterranean, Ceuta and Melilla). Under Spain, the Spanish Army of Morocco and the Spanish Foreign Legion ruled the colony.

These forces in Melilla sprang rebellion against the Second Republic of Spain on July 17, 1936.  Led by four generals, it inspired a song of loyalist Spain, “Los Quatros Generales”, an anthem for all Republicans loyal to the Republic.

The action spread to Spain the next day. By October it had become the full-blown Spanish Civil War in which 1,000,000 died. In the war 100,000 foreign volunteers served. Called in the International Brigades, they included 3,000 Americans of the Abraham Lincoln Battalion of the Fifteenth International Brigade, and several hundred others in the affiliated John Brown Artillery Battery. As a kid later, I met two of them.

Like the vast majority of the Internationals, these Americans were committed men of the left – many were Communists answering a ringing idealistic call to fight Fascism. 

The American survivors came home to ostracization, persecution and hounding for years. (In this piece published in 2016 ago on the New York Times Op-ed page, the late Sen. John McCain pays the homage of the brave to the brave in a tribute to the last member of the Abraham Lincoln Battalion to die (https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/25/opinion/john-mccain-salute-to-a-communist.html).

Loyalist/Republican Spain and its battle epitomizes all great lost causes. It may have been the most romantic of them all. Certainly, as Sen. McCain observed, Ernest Hemingway made it so in “For Whom the Bell Tolls”. 

The insurgent generals were called  Nationalists. With their far right supporters and Spain’s Roman Catholic Church they created the Falange – the Spanish Fascist Party. It allied nationalist Spain with NAZI Germany and Fascist Italy, which quickly sent 100,000 Italian soldier “volunteers”. Germany sent the air force Condor Legion. It carried out the bombing of Guernica in the Basque Province.

That event is seared in human memory by one of the masterpieces of the 20th Century, Pablo Picasso’s “Guernica”, depicting the first mass bombing ever of a civilian population. Picasso was a Basque. He was a Communist. He was a Republican in the full meaning of that word in and beyond Spain. 

He refused to set foot there again until after the death of Gen. Francisco Franco 40 years later. Today “Guernica” is displayed at the Museo Reine Sophia in Madrid. You think you know what to expect when you see it. But it surpasses expectations, stuns and reminds.

Why Franco? Another general intended to lead the rebellion died in a plane crash. It is reported the plane could have crashed because he insisted literally on moving all his weighty worldly goods with him when he flew from Africa to take command. 

The plan devised by its chief planner, Gen. Francisco Franco, called for rebellion through southern Spain from Ibiza to Majorca, to Sevilla and Valencia and across Andalusia, and then to take Madrid and so quickly to conquer Spain for Fascism.

But the plane crashed. The general died. Leadership changed.

Franco commanded the Spanish Army of Morocco, made up mostly of Moroccans led by Spanish officers. It was the seedbed of the rebellion. Franco immediately became the new leader. Within a year he proclaimed himself El Cuadillo, the Leader, the equivalent of Il Duce in Italy, Der Fuhrer in Germany.

The first 500 American volunteers were blooded at the Second Battle of Jarama on the Jarama River near Madrid in late February 1937, immortalized by Woody Guthrie in his song “Jarama”, sung to the tune of “The Red River Valley”. 

In the First Battle of Jarama, the 15th International Brigade, a composite including British, Canadian and German volunteers (the Germans were in the Thalmann unit, named for the concentration-camp incarcerated German Communist Party leader Ernst Thalmann, who died at Buchenwald in 1944).

The Brigade fought tenaciously. The Republican forces held, counterattacked, then absorbed the second Jarama assault by the Nationalists in which the Americans fought. 

The rebels failed and the Republic for a time kept Madrid. There a leader of the Republic, Dolores Ibarurri, the Communist daughter of a Basque father who came to be called “La Passionara” (the passionate flower) raised her fist in the Loyalist popular front salute to declare “No Passeron” – “They shall not pass.” 

They did not pass that winter but ultimately with aid to Spain embargoed by the democracies, England, France and the United States, and provided only by the Soviet Union, the Fascists with the aid of Italy and Germany won the ugly civil war. 

When Madrid fell to his forces, Franco cynically declared “Hemos passada” (“We have passed). 

La Passionara went into nearly 40 years in exile in Moscow, returning to Spain in 1977 after Franco died. She died in 1989 after a life spent as a hardline, un-repenting Stalinist. A Stalinist, she bore considerable responsibility for savage infighting and persecution during the Republic by Communists against anarchists and others who remained loyal to the fallen Bolshevik, Leon Trotsky. 

Like it is today, the world is complicated. Always and never more so than in Spain from 1936 to 1939, when the Republic fell.

Terror and dictatorship spread across Spain and ruled it until 1975 when Franco died and the present Spanish constitutional monarchy was born with the consent and, indeed, the active participation of the late King Juan Carlos, who was determined the nation have a democratic constitution.

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So yes, this is  all interesting. But what has it got to do with us today, here in the United States of America?

It has to do with this – with the ethic that underlay the revolution that propelled the Falangist dictatorship that smothered Spain.

In retelling the events there is this moment that resonates loudly today in the United States of America – that reverberates through all of American public life today.

Miguel de Unamuno, like Picasso a Basque (interesting the influence of that province on Spanish political, artistic and intellectual life) has been described by many as perhaps Spain’s greatest, most world-renowned 20th Century scholar, writer and philosopher. I don’t know. I don’t speak or read Spanish. I take history’s word for it.

When the rebellion began Unamuno, then 72, was Dean of the University of Salamanca, which had been founded in 1164, 68 years after Oxford, 45 years before Cambridge. The dates alone suggest its Olympian standing in worldwide academia at the time and thus Unamuno’s standing in that world.

On Oct. 12, 1936 a great crowd attended a university celebration of Día de la Raza (now called Día de la Hispanidad), celebrating what we call Columbus Day. The day Columbus made landfall in the New World became the day the Spanish language and culture began its conquest and spread throughout the Americas.

As Unamuno watched the rebellion spread first he supported it. But as the horrors of war with no quarter given by either side moved across Spain, he began to doubt and finally to believe it to be a terrible mistake. 

Presiding at the Día de la Raza celebration, which heard also from several vehement supporters and participants in the rebel Fascist cause, Unamuno saw in the audience the crippled, greatly feared Gen. Jose Millan-Astray. 

As a commander of the Spanish Foreign Legion , Millan-Astray was a key Franco general. He had been permanently injured in 1920 fighting Moroccans in their failed, bloody rebellion against merciless Spain.

From somewhere in the crowd a voice shouted “Viva La Muerte!”, which means “Long Live Death!”. Millan Astray responded “Espana!” (“Spain!”) and the crowd responded “Libre!” (“Freedom!”), and then the same again.

Unamuno rose, acknowledged the crowd awaiting his words, including this:

“…Now I have heard this insensible and necrophilous oath, “Viva La Muerte!”, and I, having spent my life writing paradoxes that have provoked the ire of those who do not understand what I have written, and being an expert in this matter, find this ridiculous paradox repellent.”

He then singled out Millan-Astray, noting his war injuries. Unamuno said:

“But unfortunately Spain today has too many invalids. And, if God does not help us, soon it will have very many more. It torments me to think that General Millan-Astray might dictate the norms of the psychology of the masses. It should be expected from a mutilated who lacks the spiritual greatness of Cervantes to find solace in seeing how the number of mutilated ones multiplies around him.”

Incensed, Millan-Astray responded with this: “Muerte a la inteligencia! Viva Muerte!”, which means “Death to Intelligence! Long Live Death!”

Historical sources say this account of the events is disputed but the weight of history finds historians like Hugh Thomas, the renowned, respected historian of the civil war, confirming it happened. 

In the prevailing accounts, Unamuno answered Millan-Astray by declaring: “You will win but you will not convince” (said to be the slogan of the city of Salamanca). 

The rebels won and instituted the terror dictatorship that, indeed, murdered intelligence.

If this has a familiar ring today in the United States it should. 

Like Millan-Astray, Donald Trump is mutilated – mentally, emotionally and socially mutilated.

If there is a single phrase that captures the ethos and ethics of the Trump era, of  how it has transmuted the Republican Party,  it is that – “Muerte a la Inteligencia” –  “Death to Intelligence.” 

A History Without End

The roots and tentacles are in history, but how far back?

66 A.D., when the Romans sent Jews into centuries of diaspora?

The next 18 centuries of Christian hate and persecution of Jews in myriad ways and forms?

632, Mohammed the founding of Islam

688, the Battle of Karbala

1896 when Theodore Herzl issued his call for a Jewish homeland?

1916 in the dessert with Lawrence?

1917 and the Balfour Declaration?

1943, the Tehran Big 3 Conference what did the FDR and Stalin see there?

The war, the Holocaust and all it wrought?

The Holocaust, the Holocaust, the Holocaust, always and forever, the Holocaust?

1947, the Partition?

1948 the first war won by Israel?

1953 when the CIA arranged the removal of Mohammed Mossadegh in Iran, replacing him with? With the Shah (is it too late to laugh)?

Israel’s victory in 1967.

Israel’s near destruction in 1973?

1978, the Iranian Revolution?

1978, the Israeli/Egyptian peace?

1990, George H.W. Bush and Kuwait?

2002, George W. Bush’s benighted wars against – and then in Iraq?

2011, the “Arab Spring”?

2024, Oct. 7, and every minute since?

Every other year in between when something happened?

Yesterday, today and tomorrow.

Does this, can this, will this history ever have an end?

Officer – Then and Now

The 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constituion concerns the traitors to the United States, who during the Civil War organized 11 states as the Confederacy and fought against the American Union and for the perpetuation of slavery.

Their rebelion – their insurrection – began April 12, 1861, when Confederate General Pierre T. Bearegard, who just three months earlier had been superintendent of West Point, ordered a cannonade against Ft. Sumter in Charleston Harbor. It ended April 9, 1865, when rebel General Robert E. Lee surrendered to Union General Ulysses S. Grant at Appomatox Courthouse, Viginia.

Five days later at Ford’s Theater the assassin’s bullet struck Abraham Lincoln. He died the next morning, April 15, 1865, murder taking the man who in his Second Inaugural Address little more than a month before advised a wounded nation to act “…with malice toward none, with charity for all…”

The 13th Amendment, abolishing slavery, had been approved by Congress in February 1865 shortly before his death as it turned out. That owed to the determination of Mr. Lincoln to end slavery as a consequence of the Civil War, and get it done before the war ended. The President wanted no equivocation afterward about the permanent abolition of that wicked institution. It was ratified by the states at the end of 1865.

The 14th Amendment set out the terms for citizenship and limited the return to public duties of certain classes among the rebels. It achieved full ratification in July 1868.

The 15th Amendment guanteed the vote to all citizens – all male citizens at the time – with no restriction “…as to race, color, or previous condition of servitude.” It was adopted finally in 1870. Women, Black and white, would wait another 49 years before their right to vote was enshrined in the Constitution.

As to the war that led to these reconstruction amendments, although some rebellious troops in the West did not surrender for two months after Appomatox until federal soldiers arrived in June at Galveston, the war effectively ended April 9.

The union forces at Galveston proclaimed the 250,000 slaves in Texas free on June 21, a date known ever after as Juneteenth. With that, there were no slaves for once and all in the United States. No one owned another person.

On that date there were 25 states in the Union, including the four border states that never seceded and remained loyal to the union. Eleven other states had rebelled. Gradually they would be readmitted to the Union as others were admitted during and soon after the war.

The Constitution requires to ammend it, two-thirds approval by each house followed by concurrence by three fourths of the states. The 14th Amendment took some time. It passed the House early and easily, 128-to-37 with 19 members not voting. But it lingered for two years in the Senate, finally winning there by 33-to-11. It gained quick ratification from the necessary 28 states among then 37, and became part of the Constitution in July 1868.

Of note is that in Section 2 the 14th Amendment removed the original constitutional definition of a Black person as three-fiths of a person, henceforth every man, women and child would be considered and counted as a whole human being. Ironically, this increased the populations of the former slave states for representation in Congress and the Electoral College, a reverse bonus for losing the war.

Today however there is great turmoil concerning the language of the 14th Amendment, with the entire focus on Section 3.

The 14th Article in Section 3 says:

No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.

As of this writing the Supreme Court of Colorado on the petition of dissenting Republicans has found Section 3 prohibits former President Donald J. Trump from appearing on the Colorado Presidential Republican primary ballot in March. The Supreme Court of Michigan has ruled the opposite, holding that he can be a candidate in that state, while the Secretaries of State of Maine and California have ruled in the first instance that he is prohibited and in the second that he cannot be removed from their state ballots.

Other states are considering the question. Maine and Colorado have stayed their determinations pending anticipated appeals.

The Republican Party of Colorado has filed such an appeal with the U.S. Supreme Court asking it to overturn the Colorado decision. It is open to question whether the party has standing to seek the court’s intervention.

There is no doubt however that Trump has such standing. One way or another whether Section 3 prevents his name from appearing on presidential ballots in primaries and looking ahead to the November general election, the question is certain now to be answered by the Supreme Court. With directly contradictory decisions by four states on a constitutional issue and more likely to follow, it must be if only to have an orderly national election.

Then what does Secton 3 mean as to Trump?

First, did he hold an office under oath? Yes, as President of the U.S., but the presidency is not mentioned among the list of specific offices. Perhaps, indeed most likely that is because only one man, President Lincoln, held that office during the Civil War. Certainly he did not trespass his oath, he embodied it, and remained steadfast in his loyal leadership of the United States. There was no prior experience ever of presidential violation of the constitutional oath. Perhaps they chose not to say President because no President had ever done it.

Second, does Trump now seek to hold “…any office, civil or military…” of the United States? Yes, he seeks the civil office of President but while establishing the bar for members of Congress, presidential electors, and state officials, the 14th Amendment as noted is silent specifically as to the presidency itself as one of those offices. Could that mean Section 3 was meant only to deal with the insurrection of the Civil War – that it did not foresee future rebellions of comparable scale or any scale? Is that what Section 3 means with reference to rebellion or insurrection?

Third, if there was an insurrection, did Trump: Take part on Jan. 6, 2021 when he urged thousands of supporters at a post-election event to go to Capitol Hill where they assaulted the Congress? Take part implicitly as the rally became a mob and the mob sought to stop Congress from completing its constitutional duty to certify the 2020 presidential election? Take part by doing nothing for hours to stop the mob while it broke into the building, invaded the building, defaced it, and hunted for Congress members and for the Vice President?

Fourth, was that event “a rebellion or insurrection”? Who decides? A state Secretary of State? Congress? General public understanding? Cable TV pundits? The Department of Justice in cases against insurrectionists, or now against Trump himself? A jury eventually in his case? A state court? A federal appellate court? The United States Supreme Court?

If it is agreed it was an insurrection, if the Supreme Court agrees, and it has not considered the question yet, then what of Trump?

In our system it is the United States Supreme Court that has to say whether Jan. 6 was an insurrection, a rebellion, before it can even decide whether Trump took part in it and further fomented and permitted it.

Did Trump on that day, in the words of Section 3 of the amendement, hold any of the specific offices it names under oath to the U.S. Constitution?

Does he meet the Section 3 test of “… having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States…”?

Let’s dispose of the easy part. Trump has never been a member of the House or Senate. He has never been a member of a state legislature. He is not and never has been an executive officer or judicial officer of any state. He has been President of the United States, but that office is not named except by inference.

The next question then is the meaning of “an officer of the United States…”

Trump is a former President of the United States. He took an oath to the Constitution that made him president on Jan. 20, 2017.

Is the President “… an officer of the United States”? Is that what the writers of the amendment meant or did they mean something much narrower? Did they mean, literally, only former U.S. military officers who became insurectionists? Even if they did, are we and more to the point is the high court bound by that meaning?

Let’s look at the United States Miltary Academy at West Point for some insight. Between the graduation of its first class in 1802 and the start of the Civil War in April 1861, the Academy graduated about 2,050 men – all white men of course.

At the start of the war there were about 1,120 living graduates of the academy. Among them 800 fought for the Union while some 300 rebelled and fought for the confderate states with various officer ranks.

Among those who fought for the Union and became a general – with the years of their academy graduations noted in parenthesis - were Grant (1843), William T. Sherman, (1840), Phillip Sheridan (1854), George A. Custer (1861/the last stand), Ambrose Burnside (1847), George Meade (1835), George McClellan (1846), and Abner Doubleday. Yes, before he supposedly invented baseball Doubleday was a West Point graduate in 1842, and later a union officer.

They were among the estimated 290 West Pointers who became Union generals. Many thousands of others from the academy and from other experiences and stations in life also became Army officers.

In the South were Lee (1829), Thomas “Stonewall” Jackson (1846), George E. Pickett of Pickett’s charge fame at Gettysburg (1846), James Ewell Brown Stuart – “Jeb” Stuart (1854), and James Longstreet (1842) to name but a few of the prominent among 150 West Point graduates who became confederate generals.

Jefferson Davis, president of the Confederacy and before the war a U.S. Senator from Mississippi, graduated West Point in 1828. Its vice president was former U.S. Sen. Alexander Stephens of Georgia, who later as a restored citizen again served Georgia in the Senate. Both were disbarred by Section 3 as former members of the United States Congress, who had been faithless to their oaths to the U.S. Constitution.

As noted, Section 3 of Article 14 does not name the offices of President and Vice President. These two offices and titles are not mentioned at all in Section 3.

So when its drafters wrote “… officer of the United States” but did not modify that with the word civil, did they mean that to include the President and Vice President, to mean generally all officials of the federal government? If they did, why did they not use the word official as well as, or in lieu of the word officer? Why did they not on the second reference specify “civil and military” officers?

Or – having just experienced a war in which historical estimates say 620,000 Black and white soldiers died on both sides; a war in which hundreds of men served as generals or lesser officers; a war whose news was relentless,ubiquitous and inescapable every day in all the newspapers and simple ordinary conversation; a war marked especially by the choices made by West Point officers, to stay North or go South – did they literally mean military officers and only military officers?

I am inclined to believe they intended that limitation given the exigent experience the nation had just come through when thousands of military officers were in view all the time not only in the papers but on parade, on trains, in the streets, in the shops, hotels, restaurants, in all public places and often right at home or just next door.

We cannot know intention and certainly not for all time know it to be unchanging, unwavering. No, we truly cannot say at all what the high court majority says with certainty, that the men who drafted the Bill of Rights in 1789 actually somehow knew 200 years later there would be assault weapons they intended the 2nd Amendement to protect; weapons that kill scores of people in less time than it took then to kill one person with a musket or pistol.

To say that was their intention is not only preposterous, it is stupid. How could they apply a rule to something they never even imagined? Such a contention insults intelligence and renders history pointless. But explain that to the miserables on this Supreme Court who believe they can read the minds of the dead.

How then will the justices understand the word “officer”. Will they give it meaning broad enough to say surely it includes the chief executive officer of the United States – the President.

Or will they say that in their time, in the context of the costliest war in the history of the United States before or since, the drafters of Section 3 literally meant military officers and that their intention is not to be further inferred or sensbily expanded?

As a matter of law and Constitutional understanding the court could take the more expansive view that a President is indeed an officer of the nation; that he can be excluded from the presidential ballot if he foments or participates in an insurrection. Of course this would mean the high court finds the events of Jan. 6,2021 were an insurrection against the United States and says so.
We think they will. We think they should. But we don’t know yet.

Would it be best if the court spoke unanimously as it did in Brown v. Board of Education? Yes. Will it? Not likely.

It is more likely the court majority will put on its hoods and rule for Trump on any basis it can concoct from the language of Section 3, based on the justices divining the intentions of its drafters when there is no one among those who wrote them they can ask because – because they are all long dead.

Once again Alito and Thomas with their allies on the court will hold a conservative’s seance, commune with the dead and tell us what they meant for all time when they wrote Section 3.

The petard is hoisted now for the court.It must sit on it regardless. It is going to hurt.