Mid-term Election

Occasionally because of my inerest in all things political someone will ask what I think is going to happen in Novemember.

Beginning in May it began to seem to me that the Blue Wave this year had the potential to become a Blue Tsunami.

By July my guess, and it’s all guessing and conjuring from what we all read and from polls — and I do look at every poll every day — my guess became there would be more than a 40-seat Democratic gain in the House, resulting in a turnout mix and direction in which the Democrats would win the Senate against all likely odds, political knowledge and sense.

Also, I began to see a Democratic gain of six to eight governorships — 36 of 50 now held by Republicans, and regaining 15-to-20 legislative chambers.

The last is the long-term prize because state legislatures elected in 2020 will control congressional redistricting after the 2020 Census. It is easier to defend chambers than to win them back — witness that Republicans have for the past ten years controlled about two-thirds of the 49 legislative chambers in the nation (Nebraska has a one-house legislature).

If you are wondering how Republicans built a structured 35-seat majority over the past three House elections, and expected to again this year, it’s because they won those state legislatures in 2010 and then controlled most redistricting in 2011

So where does it seem to head now, about five weeks out from the mid-terms?

Above 50 Democratic seats gained in the House, 52 or 53 Senators in the Democratic caucus (Sander and King are independents who caucus with them), at least six but likely a couple more governors and close to 20 legislative chambers. A word about the Senate. Yes Democrats are defending eight seats in red states or, like Florda, a purple state. Right now, Sept. 25, they are ahead or even in polls in all of them. Republicans had every seemingly reasonable expectation a year ago of winning no less than four but even as many as six of them. Instead Democatic challengers in red states are leading in at least three states.

Things can change, they always have, they always do. As things are going though they are likely to turn more in the favor of the Democrats if they change more before Nov. 8.

The Kavanaugh nomination is galvanizing and the result presently unknown — and unforeseeable. Everything else in flux. There is Trump every day. There are five more weeks of campaigning, of econimic reports, of trade blowups, of Middle East imbroglios, of political ads — of all kinds of stuff, not the least of which is the fate, future and direction of the Mueller investigation.

But no matter its outcome, the Kavanaugh nomination is injecting a lot more blue dye into the electoral map.

2018 had a decisive political direction long before it began, from the moment Trump won, from the moment he took the oath, and definitely from the moment millions of women and their families poured into the streets the day after inaugureation day in a harbinger of the #MeToo movement.

The most interesting poll today, the day I am writing this, Sept. 25? From Florida. Sen. Bill Nelson +7 over Gov. Scott. The best Nelson, proclaimed by the media a lackluster, indifferent candidate, registered in any poll until now is +1. A month ago all polls said he trailed Scott by 3 or 4 points. Then their race moved into a tie. Then last week a poll said +1 Nelson. Today Quinnipiac, a good poll, said +7. Watch for the next one out of Florida. It will be telling. The one today is further tell of a very, very large year for Democrats.

Has your interlocutor been wrong before. Yhea, sometimes, but usually not, usually not. One thing learned over the years covering politics, calling some elections and then following it all evermore is this:

Whether in polling or in actual election returns, the numbers are inexorable. Once they begin to flow in one direction or the other they become predictive. They are becoming predictive. (Oh but the numbers were right in 2016: Clinton won the popular vote by 2.5%, within the polling margins; with the inexactitude coming from the small but controlling margins in three states that were still within the polling margins of error).

So for the next five weeks, tune out the noise — watch the numbers.

That Blue Tsunami? It’s where the numbers say this is headed.