And The Candidate Is? Part 1

(Note: Because of the necessary length given the number of people it cites this will be divided into two pieces. The first is posted now with a several-day delay for the second.)

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PART 1

The mid-term election approaches. All political interest fixes on its result, reading the runes and ruins of the Kavanaugh debacle for impact on the flow of a contest now cresting toward a Democratic wave, perhaps even a tsunami – or – or as some new polls suggest, perhaps ebbing to a diminished tide on a back flow from Republicans in response.

The day after or, at most, the day after the day after the Nov. 6 election, all political focus will start to turn to the next national contest in 2020, the reelection campaign of Donald J. Trump against…against who?

Well,  it looks obvious that if he does not win the Senate seat in Texas, Rep. Beto O’Rourke will feel a tidal pull from Democrats around the nation to enter the presidential lists. But right now he is running for Senate and so is not among those mentioned, of whom there are more than three dozen. Let’s wait to see election returns from Texas before speculating on Mr. O’Rourke’s White House possibilities.

The list of Democrats and one Social Democrat said to be interested or who merely have been mentioned in the past year as potential Democratic presidential candidates now includes at least 37 people (no apologies to any overlooked in this writing – 37 is twice, nay thrice enough).

Mentioned means just that, someone somewhere along the line has at least mentioned each of the 37 as interested in the presidency, as talked about for the presidency or as clearly doing the necessary to seek the presidency, like visiting Iowa and New Hampshire, being out on the 2018 hustings. They range from most likely, former Vice President Joe Biden, to the bizarre like eccentric Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban, who has mentioned himself both as a Democratic and/or a Republican contender

If all those mentioned ran — and they won’t — that would be 36 candidates, a preposterous self-defeating number actually to enter the field, file for the first caucuses and primaries and descend in 2019 upon Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada where, as usual, the first tests come in February 2020.

More than a few on the list are people no one would take seriously as having any real likelihood of being elected president or, probably, any real interest. But we have had —  and every day the past two years get another lesson in what happens if  the really unlikely happens.  Still, do we really think Pete Buttigieg is going to be nominated for president? Do we even think he’d be foolish enough to run for the office when, if he does, which alone would prove he lacks the judgement to know he shouldn’t?

Ah, you want to know who Buttigieg is? He is the progressive 36-yer-old, gay mayor of South Bend, Ind., a place previously and otherwise known because it is the seat of the University of Notre Dame. That he is gay is mentioned because he embraces it as part of his personal and political identity.

The mayor, a Harvard graduate, Rhodes Scholar and Afghanistan veteran has the perfect profile to run — to run for Congress. But South Bend’s mayor is a young man locked out of any likely political career path in his crimson red home state. Instead he has been mentioned as a presidential candidate. He is a household name — in South Bend and its nearby environs.

Also mentioned is Rep. John Delaney, a congressman representing the inner upscale Maryland suburbs of Washington, D.C. What? John Delaney is not a name known in your household? In fact the congressman is actually more than mentioned.

Right now Congressman  Delaney is one of only two declared Democratic Party candidates for president.

Never heard of him before? Now you have. Given the safety of his congressional seat he has already had time to visit every one of Iowa’s 99 counties. In fact Delaney, seemingly an eager man, has made at least 14 visits to Iowa the past year.

Were we electing the president of Iowa, the congressman would be way ahead. Of course, to get to the main stage you have to score in the Iowa caucuses. So, in a sense, at first in every presidential election the out party kind of starts out just working on electing the president of Iowa, where Delaney has a head start.

The other declared candidate? John Yang, a household name in his own household, a New York, hi-tech billionaire investor. He has a campaign website you can search if you really want to know more, though why he thinks he could, would or should be elected president is beyond me.

There is a lot to sort out in all this. Will all of the people on the list you will read here actually declare for president? Are all of them seriously thinking about doing that? Well no, almost certainly no, and it is to be hoped no because that would be a preposterous number of candidates. Something like 25-to-30 or more people in the contest would make the Democratic nomination a free-for-all with no good end.

But recall the 2016 campaign and election and the 2015 maneuvers preceding it, when Jeb Bush was a shoo-in.  Who can forget the year 2015 produced 17  declarations of candidacy by Republicans seeking to hurl themselves on the rocks of Hilary Clinton’s inevitable election as president. So much for inevitability. Events of all kinds intercede.

Think Carly Fiorina. No, I wouldn’t think you’ve thought about her much lately, but she had one brief surge in the 2016 polls, getting near 10 percent once. And at one point, at least among know-nothings, Ben Carson was all the rage until everyone discovered he knows nothing, nothing at all about anything except brain surgery, which is not something a president has ever been called on to do.

Now Carson is Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, with his sole qualification for the job being that he lives in a house. And there was Noxious Newt, and could anyone be worse? Yes there was and is worse even than nutty Newt Gingrich. Worse got elected. Will Democrats have a Carson and a Newt?

Anyhow, the Republicans had so many candidates that after having all of them on stage once they had to devise a who’s in, who’s out rule for their debates. It provided debate places at most of their 12 scheduled debates to the 10 candidates with the highest scoring averages in a series of polls leading up to each debate. That relegated the remaining candidates to a lesser, secondary debate which got the derogatory tag “kiddie debate”.

Lindsay Graham, for one, never had the poll numbers to get out of his high chair at the kiddie debate table. He disappeared from the race with less than 1 percent in the GOP polls. He finds attention elsewhere of course, wherever there is a TV camera.

It will be up to the Democratic National Committee (DNC) to devise rules for its presidential candidate debates. Politico reports they have been working on some and will announce them in good time. As to who will be the Fiorina, the Newt and the Little Lindsay of the Democratic race, only time will tell.

Then too there is the example of Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, ranked initially as a formidable candidate – until he became one and revealed his suit is empty. Like Carson, he had no idea what anyone was talking about.  Democrats will have one or two of those. I can think of at least one.

It’s a reasonable guess the DNC’s rules will have some resemblance to Republican rules in 2015 and 2016. They’ll have to – to sort out top-tier candidates for main-stage debates because that model at least conferred an objective standard (using rolling average poll scores) on what is otherwise a very subjective business — organizing the mayhem of multiple candidates running for president.

Then too, the DNC will have to provide ground rules for how much time candidates get to speak, how much time is afforded in response — whether to afford candidates mentioned by other candidates response time apart from all the other time allocations; also selecting venues, assigning debate dates and arranging TV network partners and moderators.

It’s complicated stuff. If the field grows to 15, 20 or more candidates it will be really, really complicated stuff. If it actually gets to near 30, well that’s not a debate field, that’s the size of a small debate audience.

The 2020 primary/caucus schedule has one great, huge change. The first four as usual are Iowa, Feb. 3, followed in the ensuing weeks of February by New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

Then will come what has come to be called Super Tuesday. Eight states as usual will hold their primaries/caucuses the first Tuesday in March — March 3.  This time though there will be a 9th Super-Tuesday state.

California, which has always held its presidential primary the first Tuesday in June, the same date traditionally adhered to by Ohio and New Jersey, joins the Super Tuesday lineup. Long ago, the 1970s and 1980s, presidential nominating contests would go all the way to early June so that three state lineup anchored by California was decisive. But things have changed. Nominations are usually locked up by May now. California’s change to Super Tuesday is an accelerator to an even earlier decision for Democrats in 2020.

The Golden State has 40 million people, 12.5% of the U.S. It’s $2.65 billion economy is 5th largest in the world after the U.S. (still number one  even without the Golden State). Otherwise only China, Japan, and Germany have larger economies. California’s economy  passed those of Great Britain and France the past two years. It is a nation-state with nation-sized influence.

Hilary Clinton’s 3 million vote California plurality was her national popular vote margin.   In combination with the other eight Super Tuesday states, with the February primaries having narrowed the field as they always do, California could all but settle the nomination right then no matter what follows. One can readily imagine the media reading out any candidate who is not in the top 3 in the Golden State primary.

Certainly, it will loom large for one prospective candidate, Sen. Kamala Harris. If she runs for president she has to win her home state and win it clearly – or she will be out. In an NBC poll released Oct. 14, 2018 she ranked third with 9%. It’s an early number and not a big one. But being third among so many suggests she will be an early significant choice for 2020, a year in which Democrats must – must have a woman in one of the two places on their ticket.

Then to start with the mentioned? Here is a list organized by most prominent identification. It identifies the mentioned possible candidates by the highest elected or appointed offices they’ve held if they have been public officials, or by some other prominent identity  if they have never held public office.

An easy example? Michael Avenatti. We all know Avenatti, who on this list is found under the heading “Celebrity Lawyer”.

The other characteristic is the age of each person. The ages listed are not their current ages but the age each person will be on or within 30 days after Jan. 20, 2021, Inauguration Day. That is important enough to repeat:

The ages shown are the ages each person on the list would be on or within 30 days after Inauguration Day 2021.

Here are the 37 organized by age cohorts (and more about that later):

Over Age 70 (8 names)

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, 79

Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, 79

Former Vice President Joe Biden, 78

Former Secretary of State John Kerry, 76

Former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton, 73

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren,71

Former Attorney General Eric Holder, 70

Washington State Gov. Jay Inslee, 70

Ages 60 – 69 (12 names)

Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, 69

Illinois Sen. Sherrod Brown, 68

Starbucks Chairman Howard Schultz, 67

Celebrity Everything Oprah Winfrey, 67

Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley, 64

Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, 64

Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, 64

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, 63

Billionaire Tom Steyer, 63

Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban, 62

Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, 60

Former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, 60

Ages 50- 59 ( 9 names)

New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, 59

Maryland Rep. John Delaney, 57

California Sen. Kamala Harris, 56

New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, 54

Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, 54

New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, 51

Face Book COO Sheryl Sandberg, 51

Attorney Michael Avenatti, 50

Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, 50

Ages 40 – 49 (5 names)

Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy, 47

Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan (Ohio), 47

Former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Julian Castro, 46 of Texas

California Hi-Tech Billionaire Andrew Yang, 46

Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton,  42

Ages 35 – 39 (3 names)

Former Missouri Attorney General Jason Kander, 39

Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, 39

South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, 39

*****

Listed by present or past highest offices held or other prominent distinctions (as of this writing several current office holders will see their terms end shortly):

Former Vice President

Joe Biden

Former Secretary of State – 2

Hilary Clinton

John Kerry

Former U.S. Attorney  General

Eric Holder

Former U.S. HUD Secretary

Julian Castro

Sitting Senators – 9

Chris Murphy, Conn.

Cory Booker, N.J.

Kamala Harris, Calif.

Amy Klobuchar, Minn.

Bernie Sanders, Vt.

Jeff Merkley, Wash.

Kirsten Gillibrand, N.Y.

Sherrod Brown, Ohio

Elizabeth Warren, Mass.

Sitting Governors – 4

Andrew Cuomo, N.Y.

Steve Bullock, Mont.

John Hickenlooper, Col.

Jay Inslee, Wash.

Former Governors -2

Terry McAuliffe, Va.

Deval Patrick, Mass.

Present or Former Mayors – 5

Bill de Blasio, N.Y.C.

Pete Buttigieg, South Bend, Ind.

Michael Bloomberg, N.Y.C.

Mitch Landrieu, New Orleans

Eric Garcetti, L.A.

House Members – 4

Tulsi Gabbard, Hawaii

Seth Moulton, Mass.

John Delaney, Md.

Tim Ryan, Ohio

Business Figures – 6

Sheryl Sandberg, COO Facebook

Mark Cuban, owner Dallas Mavericks

Howard Schultz, Co-Founder & Chair, Starbucks

Oprah Winfrey, Ubiquitous

Tom Steyer, Billionaire Investor-Climate Change Proponent

Andrew Yang, hi-tech Billionaire

Celebrity Lawyer

Michael Avenatti, Stormy Daniels lawyer et. al

Former Other State Officers:

Jason Kandar, former Missouri Secretary of State.

*****

Geographical breakout of the mentioned by number per state

California, 6

Colorado, 1

Connecticut, 1

Delaware, 1

District of Columbia, 1

Hawaii, 1

Indiana, 1

Louisiana, 1

Maryland, 1

Massachusetts, 4

Minnesota, 1

Missouri, 1

Montana, 1

New Jersey, 1

New York, 6

Ohio, 2

Oregon, 1

Texas, 2

Vermont, 1

Virginia, 1

Washington State, 2

*****

Further analysis is warranted and wanted as to age. How do the 37 mentioned — and that is all they are except for Delaney and Yang (which sounds like the name of a restaurant), the only declared candidates as of  mid-October 2018; how do they fall out by age cohort as representative of the U.S. population – within the shares of the national population their age cohorts represent?

The six who will be ages 70-to-79 in the next term are in an age cohort representing but 5.4 percent of the U.S. population. Because several of them would pass age 80 in a first term if elected president that would move them into an age cohort, those 80 years and older, that is but 3.7 percent of the nation’s population. Whether you live to be just 80 or to 110 years old you are in the final census age cohort — all those over 80 years.

We age. Presidential candidates and presidents do too.  If Sanders runs, wins and finishes the next presidential term he’ll be 83 at the end of it and 87 at the end of a second term if he won it. Bloomberg too would be 83 years old seeking reelection to age 87, Biden  would be 82 at the end of a first term, 86 when he finished a second, while  Kerry would be 80 seeking reelection to age 84.

So, yes, being past age 70 is a most consequential consideration and being real close to age 80 is an even more consequential one. The nation has re-elected a president in his early 70’s, Ronald Reagan in 1984. (No, he was not diagnosed with Alzheimer’s during his presidency but five years later). But would America re-elect a president in his or her early 80’s? We’ve never gone there.

Those aged 60-to-69 are in an age cohort containing 9.4 percent of the population (be aware of course that all these figures are current and will move as population changes; therefore this age cohort is likely to increase as more and more baby boomers push into it in the next two years and then during the four years of the next presidential term).

The group aged 50-to-59 comes from an age cohort containing 13.6 percent of the U.S. population while those aged 39-to-49 represent 14.2 percent of population and those few in the last presidential-age-eligible sub-cohort, ages 35-to-39, are among 6.5 percent of U.S. population.

The figures were gleaned from on-line census research and are as reasonably current as current is.

Trump reached age 72 next June. On Jan. 20, 2021 he will be 74 years of age. Having nothing to do with the fact that he is past age  70, should anyone that age or older run for president, be elected president or serve as president in a nation in which everyone age 70 or more are just 9.1 percent of the population?

I don’t think so, but especially, especially if  by the end of the next presidential term in 2025 they would be past age 80. Before all other issues, the most important  question would become whether the nation should elect someone past age 80 to a second term that would take the individual well into his 80’s. Trump and his onetime opponent Clinton are not quite in that category, though nearly so, but Sanders, Biden, Bloomberg and Kerry are.

Recently someone suggested Joe Biden run on the promise he would serve one term then make way for his vice president to seek the next in 2024. That is dumb. No other word for it. Why would a president make himself or herself a lame duck immediately on lifting his or her hand from the Bible on Inauguration Day? In all kinds of ways, for all kinds of reasons, that makes little or no sense. And the same is really true for anyone who will be past age 75 at the end of a first term.

For myriad reasons like health, longevity, energy, contemporary experience and understanding,  there is a much stronger argument to be made for a president between the ages of 45 and 65, a space that holds 25 percent of the nation’s population.

Regrettably, that won’t stop from running any among the oldest age cohort who may be thinking about running or are merely being mentioned as potential candidates. But besides a question of a candidate’s age the day he or she announces, it’s more importantly how old the person would be at the end of a first term, what could happen to a much older president during that term and then seeing that very much older president seek reelection in 2024.

I know, I am sure reader that you know people in their late 70s and early 80s. People you admire, who you may have known in their most dynamic years. They’re still great people, but…

Notwithstanding all this,  right now on the list of Democratic mentions one would much expect Biden, Sanders  Warren and Bloomberg to run.

The former New York City mayor is in a class by himself because he has an estimated $50 billion net worth. He could personally fund everyone else’s campaigns along with his own. He can do anything he wants whenever he wants. Given that and his exalted view of himself and lesser view of the rest of us, he might be the most likely of all now to join Delaney and Yang soon as declared candidates.

For that speculation, more about a realistic field and the people who would be in it from among the 36, See Part 2.