Boom

Boom, it happened, everything since 1:45 p.m. Sunday, July 21.

Kamala Harris endorsed decidedly by the president.

$81 million raised in 24 hours, $100 million in 36 hours.

Sunday night, 44,000 women on one phone call (ever heard such a thing? No, I didn’t think so – the power of Black sororities you think?)

Next night, 40,000 Black men on another.

Everyone else mentioned for weeks as a candidate for president endorsed her within 24 hours.

Everyone else on the D side of the equation endorses her.

She makes a great stump appearance in Wilmington to bring in the Biden/Harris camapaign staff and make it the Harris campaign staff.

Most of us had never heard the stump speech so when we did it was and is a wow. Now we are wowed by the difference in who Democrats are sending out to battle the dragon.

The nomination secured Monday night by delegate count. The formal count to follow the first week of August.

That was the first 36 hours.

What happens next?

VP

Well start with the VP choice. Harris put former Attorney General Eric Holder in charge of vetting the choices.

Who are they? In all likelihood one of the four white men mentioned for the nomination.

It is received political understanding that the country is perhaps not ready for two women on the ticket, or a Black man VP candidate with a Black woman presidential candidate. Should it be so? No. Is it likely so in this country? The guess is yes. In politics, don’t guess if you don’t have to do it.

The four men are Governors Roy Cooper of North Carolina, who leaves office in January term limited; Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, in office just 18 months; Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky, mid-way through his second term; and Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, who is a superbe choice for all the reasons first identified here in a piece posted July 4, (weeks ahead of the commentariat, a self-pat on the back).

Harris knows and likes Cooper from their days together as state attorneys general, a plus for him as well as being governor two terms in a red state. He would make a superb choice for attorney general of the United States of America.

If you don’t follow politics closely had you heard of him until just this week? No, I didn’t think so. Neither has the country outside his state and some of its immediate region like South Carolina, Georgia and Tennessee, southern Virginia — all red states or red state territory.

Shapiro is a new and dynamic figure in politics, and at age 51 he has time. He has a great future that should include a second term and then succeeding Sen. Robert Casey, 64, who will be reelected this year but should think about retirement in 2030 when he’ll be 70 years old.

There is and will be a new perspective on age in politics going forward militating against candidates over age 70 and certainly past age 80. This is a swan song run for dozens of them in Congress, including Nancy Pelosi, James Clymer and Stenny Hoyer. All of you witll have to go peacefully into the grace of that good night.

Then too about Shapiro, a left over from that bothersome question about what the nation is ready for – is it ready for a Jewish vice president? It’s there. Ignore the question. But it’s there as every American Jew knows. If she chooses Kelly and they win, then the first man and the second lady will be Jewish. They would not be elected, expect by their spouses, but it is a notable fact that will be noted.

Could Shapiro bring the vital key Keystone State into the Democratic column in November? He could help as her choice but he will anyway greatly help Harris win the state – decisively.

Beshear, 47, is in the middle of his second term, a Democrat who got reelected as governor of crimson red Kentucky. He isn’t going to bring its meager electoral vote with him. That is beyond any Democratic presidential candidate’s hope, reach or expectation.

He is a popular, admired, well-like moderate who in the circumstances of Kentucky was able to win it twice. Does that mean he adds much in other red states or rural red parts of contested states? No, and it doesn’t matter because they are red states and red parts of states.

He has shown with the name of another former governor of the state, his father, Steven who brought Obamacare based Kentuckycare to the state, that he, the popular son, could win the trust of a majority in Kentucky. But Kentucky is not the nation – or anything like it.

Beshear has shown he can win Kentucky. But neither he nor any other Democrat can win or help win South Carolina, Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, Alabama, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Nebraska, North or South Dakota or the near far-west of Montana, Wyoming, Idaho.

Texas? It’s coming. Not this time but it’s coming on. However post this new Democratic presidential candidate energy there, is a true chance that Colin Allred will rid Texas of Tex Cruz.

Florida, now that is an interesting story for lots of reasons: abortion is on the ballot, sensible people, even some not sensible people are tired of having a really dumb guy as governor, DeSantis; and much disliked Sen. Rick Scott is up for election against a woman Democrat, Debbie Muscarell-Powsell, when – oh yes not -protecting abortion in the state constitution is on the ballot in Florida.

Remember that, abortion is on the Florida ballot. How do you think that will come out in a state of 27 million people who now have a DeSantis 6-week rule?

Florida is still red, but it is a lighter shade tinging purple in places. Put it this way. It is not in play but it is moving in the margins.

Back to VP possibilities then. Their states and to a lesser degree those in nearby states and political junkies have heard of the governors of Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Kentucky. But has the country? It’s a rhetorical question.

But the guess is you’ve heard of Mark Kelly – age 60, just a year older than the presidential candidate. Americans have heard of him and know about him not because he is a senator necesssarily – but because he is a former astronaut (and combat pilot) and husband of Gabby Gifford.

Since 1961 when it first got them, the nation has loved its astronauts.

His wife’s tragic but triumphant story we know as we do his part in it with her. It makes the couple the leading gun control advocates in a nation that, outside the warp of constitutional stricture on U.S. Senate representation, wants it.

In the first and last analysis, Vice President Harris will choose who she is comfortable with and who she believes adds to her ticket so all this is so much speculation until she does.

Still, as of Tuesday morning at least one news report said her choice had narrowed to Kelly or Shapiro, which makes sense if she decides the governor has to be on the ticket to win Pennsylvania. But he doesn’t and there are several days to test that in private polls and focus groups.

When will she decide? Not long. Maybe Sunday, the perfect day for a major announcement to control the following three days of the news cycle. But certainly by the middle of next week. It can’t wait, it can’t fester, it can’t afford camps lining up. So within a week to 10 days is a good guess.

Then what?

Polls

Oh the polls.

New ones be sure have been in the field starting Monday morning with initial reports perhaps this Thursday and then running through the next week.

What will they show? Best guess is they will show a big bump shooting Harris into a 6-point national lead and a 3-to-7 point lead variously in the six contested state, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. And – and signs from Ohio that the race is suddenly in play there where it seemed not at all possible to the political cognoscenti.

Why Ohio? They elected J.D. Vance by 6 points in 2022, an off-year but are just now actually finding out who he is and what he thinks. He thjinks like 40% of Ohio actually, not a majority of it.

Also in play in Ohio is that Sherrod Brown, an immensley popular U.S. Senator, is on the ballot and that state constitutional abortion rights won with 58% last year statewide.

Ah, but that was last year. True but now they know Vance is totally, unalterably against except abortion rights except when he waffles about abortion after rape or incest. He needs a new waffle iron for the times he has hemmed and haw hawed on that one.

Ohio? Unions, the infrastructure bill, and the Chip bill investment in reindustrialization are big, big things in the manufacturing state of Ohio.

The DNC

And then there is the Democratic National Convention convening Aug. 19, a television show yes but in this case the Harris/Who She Names show. It will be loud, raucous, celebratory, feature a standing ovation for Joe Biden to rival that of 12 minutes for Bobby Kennedy at the 1964 Democratic National Convention in his memorial for JFK.

It will be a doozy of a political show that will send the Democratic ticket rocketing. It’s the way these things go. It is being held late in August so that it does not compete with the Olympics.

Debates

The debates? There is supposed to be a VP debate between now and the Democratic convention. That could happen or be delayed but if you were J.D. Vance with his limited range would you want to go up against Mark Kelly’s knowledge in the Senate? Or an incisive truly articulate Gov. Shapiro? No, you don’t, you really don’t.

And the other one, the second Trump/Biden debate?

It is now the first Trump/Harris debate. Every Trump lie will be called out immediately and clearly, every stupid statement too, with sound Biuden accomplishments noted and plans for the future laid out by Harris. Any hint of physical intimidation like Hilary sufffered will be shattered.

Trump has to show up. If he doesn’t it looks worse than if he does. But if he shows up, and he will, she will slaughter him, at long last he will be flayed and laid bare for all to see.

So? So the forecast for Democrats is bright political sunshine up and down the ballot everywhere outside the dismally dark red states – the ones so ironically that also got Obamacare Medicaid expansion, and are getting federal infrastructure money, federal chip industrial investment, and whose voters especially depend on Medicare and Social Security. Red states are lost places where political appreciation, gratitude and who cares about you are unknown.

In the next four years they will, like the rest of us, get expanded child care and child tax credits, a continued emphasis on climate change law and regulation, a fairer tax code and furthr industrial reinvestment – all good stuff.

Because Boom, since Sunday it is at last where the nation is going.